The Foreign Service Journal, June 2011

50 Years Ago... W e have learned — in Korea and elsewhere — that it is possible to pour very large sums into an under- developed area with a low return in terms of the pace of its economic development. High levels of foreign aid are compat- ible with stagnation. There is virtually no limit to the amount of resources we can put into an underdeveloped area, if they are not used productively. We now know firmly that the most important component in foreign aid is the willingness and the ability of the aspiring nation to organize its own human and material resources. — Walt W. Rostow, “The Future of Foreign Aid,” FSJ , June 1961. dor to Kazakhstan William Courtney offers up another image of the country: a “toxic brew.” In an April 6 op-ed in the International Herald Tribune , “The Father of Kazakhstan,” Amb. Courtney compares the Kazakh situation to that of Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt. He notes that in both societies, the ruler lifted the economy and public expectations, but remained vulnerable to public re- sentment over corruption. Courtney also worries about the tol- erance level of the tens of thousands of talented young people, many of whom are educated abroad, have high expec- tations for political participation, and are already frustrated by political stasis and debilitating greed. Not surprisingly, Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Masimov is more san- guine. Asked about the protests in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria, he told Reuters: “What is the biggest differ- ence between them and us? People in Kazakhstan, the young generation in Kazakhstan, have hope and they have an opportunity to go forward.” Several commentators concede that Pres. Nazarbayev is genuinely popular in his country. However, judging the current regime’s popularity presents a serious challenge. In her Apr. 9 New York Times article, “In Kazakhstan, a Good Old-Fashioned Sham Election,” Ellen Barry examines this thorny prob- lem. In the Soviet Union, she notes, elec- tions “represented less a political choice than a ritual expression of loyalty to the regime,” so local officials viewed voter turnout in their regions as a measure of their personal success. The competi- tion to get more people to the polls be- came a strong motivation for those local officials, who pressed the population to vote in a way similar to that noted by observers in Kazakhstan. Barry concedes that “if [Nazar- bayev’s] government has drifted toward a Soviet model, that may also reflect the people’s will.” However, that model has a serious disadvantage: it impedes the ability of the government to judge its own popularity. Where Barry and many observers see a president whose immense popu- larity leaves little room for real opposi- tion candidates, others — like Amb. Courtney and Foreign Policy ’s Steve LeVine — see a potentially restless youth population. They cite prominent Kazakhs, like millionaire Bulat Abilov and intellectual Oraz Jandosov, who support genuine competition in the po- litical process. — Danielle Derbes, Editorial Intern J U N E 2 0 1 1 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 11 C Y B E R N O T E S WWW.FSJOURNAL.ORG When contacting an advertiser, kindly mention the Foreign Service Journal. Click on the Marketplace tab on the marquee AFSA Insurance Plans hirshorn.com/afsa AFSA Legacy afsa.org/CFCFAD.cfm AKA Hotel residences stay-aka.com Bryan Schwartz Law www.bryanschwartz.com Clements International clements.com Country Day School, Guanacaste www.cdsgte.com Diplomatic Automobile Sales diplosales.com Indiana University http://iuhighschool.iu.edu Jakarta International School www.jisedu.org Liberty University Online Academy libertyonlineacademy.com ProMax Management Inc. promaxrealtors.com SDFCU sdfcu.org Savannah College of Art and Design www.scad.edu TetraTech tetratech.com WJD wjdpm.com