The Foreign Service Journal, June 2011

J U N E 2 0 1 1 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 17 At the same time, however, differences between and among countries and subregions are growing. These differences have to do with levels of economic de- velopment, wealth, human capi- tal and social cohesion; the strength of democratic institu- tions and adherence to the prin- ciples of representative demo- cracy; and the degree of interac- tion with the United States. For example, Brazil is now the world’s seventh-largest economy, singlehandedly accounting for 40 percent of the entire region’s gross domestic product. Brazil’s state- controlled oil company, Petrobras, is the world’s fourth- largest corporation (trailing only ExxonMobil, Apple and PetroChina). According to the World Bank, South Amer- ica as a whole grew at an average rate of between 5 and 6 percent a year from 2004 and 2008, double the rate of U.S. growth in this same period; and this gap has only widened since the onset of the 2008 recession. Largely due to Chinese demand, countries rich in commodities and agriculture, such as Chile, Peru and Argentina, have grown robustly during a period of global recession. By contrast, the U.S. financial crisis of September 2008 brought havoc to those countries and regions most deeply integrated with the United States due to patterns of trade, investment, remittances and migration: Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Mexico has begun to recover, but many smaller countries remain mired in recession. Their proximity to illegal markets in the United States has drawn us together in more perverse and destructive terms, as well. In the Andean region, it is hard to imagine countries more different in their political and economic orientations than Colombia and Venezuela, de- spite the recent warming of rela- tions between these two neigh- bors. Colombia’s economy is booming and foreign investment is at record levels, while oil-rich Venezuela is the only country in South America whose economy is contracting. Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our Amer- ica, known as ALBA, share similar patterns of hyper- presidentialism, autocracy and authoritarianism. But there are also important differences among them, in- cluding the constituencies that constitute their core of support and the strength, coherence and broad-based ap- peal of their political opposition. Thus, while it is appealing to speak of “U.S policy in the Western Hemisphere,” the truth is that diplomacy must take into account the variety among and between coun- tries and subregions. The Obama administration’s recog- nition of this diversity, and of the more nuanced diplomacy required to meet it, represents an advance over previous decades. Diminished Control or Diminished Influence? As South American democracies have matured and deepened in the decades since the transition from au- thoritarian rule, the continent’s leaders have sought to di- versify foreign policy partners and to give priority to relationships beyond the United States. High levels of economic growth over the last 10 years, coupled with so- cial policies that have reduced poverty and expanded so- cial cohesion, have created the conditions for the projection and exercise of “soft power” by many coun- tries of the hemisphere. Some of this projection, particularly that exercised by Venezuela, is aimed explicitly at limiting or undermining U.S. influence in the region. Other manifestations of as- sertiveness and independence, however, reflect the in- creased economic and political capacity of stable demo- cracies. Virtually all countries in the region, regardless of political orientation, have sought to expand their trading partners and political alliances. F O C U S U.S. power to control, let alone prevent, the diversification of Latin American foreign relations is limited and, in some cases, nonexistent. Dr. Cynthia J. Arnson is director of the Latin American Pro- gram at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She is editor of In the Wake of War: Peace and Democratization in Latin America (WoodrowWilson Cen- ter Press and Stanford University Press, forthcoming, 2011) and author of Crossroads: Congress, the President, and Central America, 1976-1993 (2nd ed., Penn State Press, 1993), among other works. She writes and lectures fre- quently on Latin American politics and U.S. policy toward the region. This article is adapted from her Dec. 1, 2010, testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.