The Foreign Service Journal, June 2015

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2015 103 Power Dynamics in Today’s World Is The American Century Over? Joseph S. Nye Jr., Global Futures Series, Polity Press, 2015, $12.95, paperback/$8.99, e-book, 152 pages. Reviewed By Harry C. Blaney III This little volume is perhaps the best short read I know about our global landscape, its future trajectory and the implications for global geostrategic power shifts. A former dean and now professor at the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government, Nye is no stranger to Washington foreign policymaking. Among other positions, he spent time on the State Department’s seventh floor. In short, he knows both the academic side (he invented the concept of “soft power”) and the hard realities of the practice of power diplomacy. As we all know, there is a furious, and often misguided, debate about the fall of America and the rise of China, Europe and a host of other nations and forces. Nye examines all of these argu- ments, citing and quoting authors who espouse one viewpoint or another. He brings considerable factual material and analytical skills to bear to see if the views match reality. What we see in this book is a concise tour de force examining the international context in which power is exercised, to what end and how it shifts (or does not) over time. While the emphasis is on the role of America, the author’s true focus is on relative and shifting power—it is a dynamic look at the phenomenon rather than a static, unidimensional or simplistic expansion of existing, but shifting, trends. The first two chapters look at “The Creation of the American Cen- tury” and “American Decline.” I will skip the argument over when the American Century may have begun because the several alternatives are all somewhat plausible and, in any case, the heart of the mat- ter is the often-popular idea of American global decline. Nye cites most of the arguments for “American decline”—and these citations alone are worth the price of the book, just to set the stage. He then gets to the real nitty-gritty of the policies, resources, new actors and exercise of power that lie at the heart of American influence in the world. One quote sums up much of his argument here: “The short answer to our question is that we are not entering a post-American world.” Nye believes that in 2041 the United States will still have “primacy in power resources and play the central role in the global bal- ance of power among states...” But he correctly notes that it is necessary to look at “a decrease in relative external power and domestic deterioration or decay.” One key point he makes is that there is “no virtue in either understatement or overstatement of American power.” The hubris of a Bush II is not wise, and neither is “withdrawal from the world or nationalistic and protectionist poli- cies that do harm.” He uses the rise and decline of Britain before the two world wars to illustrate how domestic decay (such as falling industrial pro- ductivity) reduced absolute power, but it was the rise of others that reduced the country’s relative power. Nye acknowledges that the American Century may change or end as a result of a “relative” power decline because of the rise of others. He looks at the rela- tive power changes in Europe, Japan, Russia, India and Brazil. The latter has no chance to overtake America, but Nye thinks that China will be the chief competitor and even surpass America in economic growth and size. But in the next chapter, on China, he also analyzes that country’s many prob- lems and questions whether, in fact, it will stop the American Century in all areas of power. He looks at Beijing’s strategy and American responses. He notes that its military power is officially at a quarter of America’s by the measure of defense expenditures, but that there are programs that are “off the books.” Nye believes that the American Century will likely continue, but it will not look like the past and will be more complex. The American share of the global economy will be smaller than in the past, for example. But Nye does not believe in simple linear extrapolation of growth rates; he looks at multiple What we see in this book is a concise tour de force examining the international context in which power is exercised, to what end and how it shifts (or does not) over time. BOOKS