The Foreign Service Journal, June 2019

16 JUNE 2019 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL SPEAKING OUT Afghanistan—Rightsizing Expectations BY ANN I E PFORZHE I MER Annie Pforzheimer, a recently retired career diplomat with the personal rank of Minister Counselor, was until March 2019 the acting deputy assistant secretary for Afghanistan. From 2017 to 2018, she was the deputy chief of mission in Kabul. Prior to that, she directed implementation of the Central America strategy at the National Security Council (2014-2015). She also led the Office of Andean Affairs in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs during Colombia’s peace process, and the Office for Peacekeeping, Sanctions and Counterterrorism in the Bureau of International Organizations. She was the director of the International Narcotics and Law Enforcement program in Mexico City, political counselor in El Salvador, and the human rights officer in Turkey and South Africa. Her first assignment was in Colombia. Ms. Pforzheimer received the State Department’s 2001 award for human rights reporting. The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. government. A fghanistan is a country that I love. My friends there are men and women of great character and bravery, who make me laugh and make me think. The Afghan people’s surmounted traumas are legendary. A 50-year-old Afghan has lived under six forms of government or political authority: a monarchy, a social- ist republic, a communist dictatorship, anarchy and civil war, a theocracy and a democracy. I have served twice in Kabul, as politi- cal counselor (2009-2010) under a new U.S. Democratic administration and as deputy chief of mission (2017-2018) under a new U.S. Republican administra- tion—and both defined their policy in large degree by rejecting the policy they just inherited. Looking ahead to 2020, there is no doubt that both political parties will cam- paign to end our “war.” But U.S. govern- ment career officials and some outside experts who have focused on Afghanistan over the decades would argue that we need to maintain security support to fight an enduring terrorist threat and avoid predatory behavior by regional powers. Afghans, for their part, use historical examples to bolster their unique blend of catastrophizing and optimism. What could break out, they caution us, is another civil war like the one they had in the 1990s, when Washington deserted Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal. That led to millions of refugees, hundreds of thousands killed, a flattened capital and, eventually, the Taliban takeover and the use of their territory by al-Qaida and the masterminds of 9/11. This warning sounds like a weird suicide threat—holding a gun to the only victims in the conflict, themselves. That said, they are right to threaten and remind us, because we do stand to lose, as well. Our memory is famously poor, and Afghans do not assume we’ll remem- ber or care about the consequences of another power vacuum in their country. The optimism kicks in when they imagine a future free of war, albeit with our con- tinued support, at a minimal level that keeps the predatory neighbors at bay. Identifying Our Interests The United States must let history inform the present and avoid acting in a way we are likely to regret in the not- too-distant future. We have, sadly, seen this movie before, when a U.S. decision to “move on” from our support to the anti-Soviet fighters gathered momentum, with dire consequences. The film “Charlie Wilson’s War” ends pointedly with a congressional rejection of funding in the early 1990s to rebuild Afghan schools. The vacuum unfilled by a government led to the rise of the Taliban who offered order. I do support the current decision to downsize our embassy, military presence and civilian assistance over time. But it would be contrary to our interests to cut off assistance to the Afghan security forces before there is a genuine peace and a path toward regional buy-in to Afghan stability. We have the responsi- bility to finish at least some of what we started, and to do that we need a clear analysis on which to base a way forward. One way to get clarity is to consider our interests as if we were looking at the region for the first time. If we did so, we’d value the fact that we have the makings of an important and well-located strategic ally. With a sustainable peace, that ally