The Foreign Service Journal, June 2019

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2019 21 will require State Department leadership if the basic principles of asylum are to be safeguarded. Popular Attitudes, Demographic Decline and Policy Challenge Popular concern about migration is soaring, while formerly welcoming rich countries’ doors are closing. After German Chancellor Angela Merkel welcomed large numbers of Middle Eastern refugees to Germany in August 2015, voter angst rocked Europe. In the face of historically unprecedented levels of immigration, Europe is testing the frontiers of multiculturalism. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in 2017 the share of foreign-born residents of Sweden was 18 percent; in Ireland, 17.1 percent; in Austria, 19 percent; in Spain, 13 percent; in the U.K., 14 percent; and in Ger- many, 15 percent. Sweden may have a non-ethnically Swedish- majority population by the end of the century. As migrant populations grow, demographic decline among the native-born hollows out large European states. Spain has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Germany’s present popu- lation is 87 million; by 2060, it could fall by 15 million. In 2014 fewer babies were born in Italy than in any year since 1861. The situation in the United States is no better. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the current U.S. birthrate of 1,766 per 10,000 is 16 percent below what is needed for population stability. We must accept a shrinking population or welcome more immigrants. America also faces skill shortages and needs specific scientific, technical, engineering and math- ematics (STEM) talents. Future innovators will and do come from all over the world. Today foreign-born residents constitute almost 14 percent of our population—the highest percentage since 1910. More of them will need to be skilled. Elite or specific skills migration can be managed with points systems, special visa categories and other measures addressing critical labor shortfalls. What about unskilled workers? Is the press- ing need for certainmigrants an argument for more USAID pro- grams to improve education in the developing world? How do we square skills-basedmigration with our country’s tradition of mass immigration? Are visa lotteries the best way to identify immigrants? Labor mobility is key to economic growth. As fertility rates in rich nations decline, migration will meet labor demand. With retirement systems facing unsustainable numbers of pension- ers, governments can manage immigration to ensure systemic viability. Countries needing workers already welcome migrants. Just as political refugees leave oppression for freedom, so eco- nomic migrants can do the same in search of better lives. Rich and poor lands should equally benefit. We are a land of immigrants. Yet in 2018 Americans told Gallup pollsters that the number-one problemAmerica faces is immi- gration. Our president speaks of undocumented migrants and asylum-seekers as a national security threat. Elsewhere, French voters’ long flirtation with the far right is grounded in unhappiness COURTESYOFANDREWERICKSON.BACKGROUND: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/ZEFERLI The Bosnia crisis demonstrated that mass refugee outflows on the fringes could have significant domestic political consequences in Europe. Here a UNHCR crew assesses refugee return prospects in a ruined Balkan village in 1996.