The Foreign Service Journal, June 2021

28 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL President Biden has also made clear that he sees China as currently posing the top foreign policy challenge for this administration. In his first media interview in February, Biden said that, while needing to avoid conflict, he expected “extreme competition” with China. According to a White House readout of his phone conversation with China’s President Xi Jinping, “President Biden underscored his fundamental concerns about Beijing’s coercive and unfair economic practices, crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and increasingly assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan.” In his confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken labeled China’s internment of an estimated 1 million minority Uyghurs as “genocide,” and said in a subsequent inter- view that the United States will be “building stronger alliances, standing up for our values, investing in our people, and making sure our military is properly postured.” Similarly, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in an event hosted by the U.S. Institute of Peace that the United States will “speak with clarity and consistency in regard to China and other foreign policy issues.” Specifically, he said this includes “being prepared to act as well as to impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it’s doing in Hong Kong, and for the bellicosity and threats that it is projecting towards Taiwan.” Given the above, it seems this is a critical moment as well as an opportunity for President Biden to underscore his foreign policy priorities by increasing the clarity of U.S. commitment not only to defend Taiwan but, more pointedly, to defend its democracy against China’s blatant resort to military and other forms of coercion “to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means.” In their recent public statements, Presi- dent Biden and his team have called out Beijing for its coercive actions, emphasizing that any cross-strait agreement must be “consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people on Taiwan.” In mid-April, former Senator Chris Dodd, accompa- nied by former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage and Jim Steinberg, traveled to Taiwan and met with President Tsai Ing-wen to deliver a personal message from President Biden reaffirming U.S. support for Taiwan on the 42nd anniver- sary of the Taiwan Relations Act. The recent deployment of U.S. aircraft carrier groups to the region and transits through the Taiwan Strait have further underscored U.S. commitment. With or without an explicit security guarantee, it is thus essential that the United States continue to affirm and demon- strate U.S. political will and capacity to counter Chinese military pressure against Taiwan. Congress should pass the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act to demonstrate bipartisan support and provide authorization to use military force, if necessary. The United States also needs to move quickly to expand bilateral trade, social and cultural ties (e.g., inviting Taiwan to the Sum- mit for Democracy) and negotiating a trade agreement, to strengthen the relationship. This will help build more support among Americans for the need to defend Taiwan and under- score to Taiwan and our allies, as well as such strategic competi- tors as China and Russia, that the United States is committed to the principles of democracy and human rights, and intends to impose costs and undertake risks to defend democracies and advance the values of the rules-based liberal international order. Countering Beijing’s Strategy of Intimidation According to China’s Xinhua news service, Xi Jinping warned Biden in their call that “in matters concerning Chinese sover- eignty and territorial integrity,” referring to Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, “the U.S. side should respect China’s core interests and act with caution.” Thus, the Biden administration should expect Beijing to escalate military pressures to continue to test U.S. resolve. As it has done in the cases of the East and South China Seas and in Hong Kong, Beijing will justify these actions as a response to foreign interference against China’s core inter- ests. Nonetheless, I believe Chinese leaders are fully aware of the tremendous costs that would result from an armed conflict involving Taiwan. This situation is entirely different from those in Xinjiang or Hong Kong, where Beijing has full control, and the United States has little to no leverage. To begin with, Beijing would be facing a modern and well-armed Taiwan military in entrenched defensive positions that would exact a heavy toll on an invading force, even if it could not ultimately win the fight. A full-scale armed conflict would destroy vital cross-strait eco- nomic ties and disrupt critical global supply chains, which will in turn have a debilitating impact on the large but still develop- President Biden has made clear that he sees China as currently posing the top foreign policy challenge for this administration.