24 JUNE 2024 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere you look, seemingly infused into every conversation. But is this another tech hype cycle, or are we on the cusp of a step change in productivity, akin to the birth of the modern internet? And what should international affairs professionals make of the technology? To thoroughly answer these questions, we need a brief primer on the history of AI, what it is today, and where it might go in the next few years. As we will see, breakthroughs in several different domains—from data collection to processing power and programming—have given way to a breakthrough in AI, allowing us to deploy the technology in ways that would have seemed impossible even five years ago. That means we must also reckon with AI’s sociopolitical ramifications and the technology’s military applications. First: a working definition. The inside joke among AI researchers is that AI is whatever we can’t do yet. Applications that were once described as AI are now considered routine algorithms. The original spam filters that Google and Microsoft use are examples of AI, as is machine vision that makes character recognition possible. For our purposes, we can define AI as any computer program developed through iterative learning and not by manual coding of instructions. For example, a toy mouse programmed to follow a set path through a maze is not AI; but a mouse programmed to use sensors to “learn” a path by bumping into obstacles and iteratively adjusting trajectory is. Zed Tarar recently completed an MBA at London Business School and currently works in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. He joined the Foreign Service in 2010 and has served in Abu Dhabi, Karachi, Rome, Washington, D.C., and London. An AI Primer for policy profressionals As international affairs professionals, we need to understand the fundamentals of new technology so we can better address its evolution and application. BY ZED TARAR SHUTTERSTOCK.COM/AVECTOR FOCUS ON AI FOR DIPLOMACY
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