The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2008

setup, relying on elected provincial and local leaders and, at the national level, a parliamentary system with a more ceremonial president and a govern- ment composed of competent tech- nocrats reporting to a strong and popu- lar prime minister. An Optimistic Scenario Empowering the national parliament would entail risks. It is likely that any legislature would reflect Afghanistan’s ethnic and tribal mosaic, though it is possi- ble that ideology would manifest itself in the representa- tion of some urban populations, as was true of Afghan parliaments prior to the communist coup of 1978. But a loya jirga could address this concern by authorizing a new parliamentary election based, at least in part, on a party system. Formed on the basis of elections far better organized than in 2005, a parliamentary system would afford the prospect of political leadership more closely reflecting the aspirations of the people and more accountable to them. Formation of political parties would also increase democratization of the parliament by reaching, over time, across ethnic and cultural lines that currently form the basis of power blocs. A new loya jirga could help ensure a more represen- tative body by establishing literacy requirements and, more crucially, by setting strict qualifications — for both individuals and parties — for participation in a new par- liamentary election. In the lead-up to the 2005 parlia- mentary balloting, the Afghan Election Commission vet- ted candidates to screen out those with criminal or vio- lent backgrounds. After initially ruling that 208 of more than 2,500 candidates should be disqualified, it ulti- mately succumbed to pressure and barred only 11. Even the 208 initially identified represented only a small frac- tion of those whose candidacy should have been chal- lenged. Constitutional prohibitions barring those guilty of certain human rights abuses were ineffective because the absence of a functioning justice system meant that perpetrators had never been convicted. Inasmuch as there is still no real progress in the judi- cial sector toward the identification, prosecution and conviction of those guilty of grave human rights abuses and other crimes, it would be necessary to invest a new election commission with quasi-judicial powers, enabling it to exclude the clearly cor- rupt and the worst abusers. To be effective and credible, the commis- sion would have to be composed of outstanding individuals whose repu- tation for integrity would imbue it with the requisite authority. Ade- quate international support for this body would be vital, but its character and composition would need to be indisputably Afghan. This election commission or a separate, similarly empowered body could also set terms for political par- ticipation in parliamentary and other elections by former Taliban members. Such a commission would relieve Pres. Karzai of this politically explosive burden. Ideally, the loya jirga that would constitute and com- pose this commission or commissions should itself include tribal and ethnic leaders and other individuals who have standing with the Taliban. The concept would be similar to an effort, proposed but never implement- ed, to lure supporters of the Mohammad Najibullah regime in 1989 into a successor government by inviting “good Muslims” from the former’s ranks. Realistically, convening an authentic loya jirga prior to the 2010 parliamentary elections may not be feasible. But it is essential that, at a minimum, the parliamentary elections be properly prepared. Whether formed and empowered by a loya jirga, a much more legitimate basis, or by action of the Afghan government and inter- national donors, an election commission with broad powers and a clear mandate to rule on prerequisites for candidacy are needed, to ensure that the parliament emerges as a credible institution capable of balancing the power of a very strong presidency. In the final analysis, Afghanistan remains a victim of international intervention that has empowered some of the worst elements of society and trapped its people in a foreign-made political system that ignores their history, tradition and political realities. While some of this inter- vention has been well meaning, much of it has been self- serving, reflecting the national ambitions and interests of other countries. Afghanistan was the first victim of Taliban misrule and al-Qaida brutality. It deserves another chance in a new political system mandated by a traditionally orga- nized loya jirga that reflects the nation’s history and real- ity and is perceived by Afghans as legitimate. n F O C U S 30 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / J U LY- A U G U S T 2 0 0 8 Pres. Karzai's skills as a politician and his standing as a Pashtun leader are on the line.