The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2008

J U LY- A U G U S T 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 41 lmost seven years after 9/11 and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the role of Pakistan in the imbroglio remains murky. Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been largely antagonistic since Pakistan gained independence in 1947 — with the exception of the five years of Taliban rule between 1996 and 2001. In 2001, the U.S. demanded that Pakistan renounce the Taliban, whose rise to power was facilitated by Islamabad, and refrain from installing Afghan leaders of its own in Kabul. Convinced, however, that the American presence in the region would not last, Pakistan embarked on a dual-track policy — providing sanctuary to the rem- nants of the Taliban on one side of the border, while offi- cially supporting the transitional Afghan government on the other. Until 2005, Islamabad refrained from any serious interference, helping in the organization of the October 2004 presidential elections in the Afghan refugee camps, as well as the September 2005 parliamentary vote. Relations began deteriorating again in late 2005 with the resurgence of the Taliban in the Afghan provinces bordering Pakistan. In March 2006, the two countries’ presidents, Hamid Karzai and Pervez Musharraf, traded accusations of interference in each country’s affairs. The antagonism reached a new peak in May 2007, when Afghan demolition of a fence erected by Pakistan on the border as a result of American pressure prompted a series of clashes in which more than 50 Afghan civilians and officers were killed. During the past year, relations have improved somewhat but remain tense. Normalization of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relation- ship is an essential element in bringing about a stable and developing Afghanistan. To understand how that might be possible, it is necessary to look closely at Islamabad’s policy toward Afghanistan and what shapes it. Threat Perceptions The row over the countries’ border is a paradox: Kabul constantly accuses Islamabad of violating a border that Kabul itself does not recognize. Indeed, this dispute is at the core of the complex and unstable bilateral relation- ship. Imposed by British colonialists in 1893 after two wars to conquer the Afghans produced a stalemate, the F O C U S O N A F G H A N I S TA N T HE P AKISTAN P IECE OF THE P UZZLE A FGHANISTAN ’ S CONTENTIOUS RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS NEXT - DOOR NEIGHBOR IS A CRITICAL ELEMENT IN ITS CONTINUING TROUBLES . B Y F REDERIC G RARE A Frederic Grare is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie En- dowment for International Peace, where he leads a project assessing U.S. and European policies toward Pakistan. A leading expert and writer on South Asia, security issues, Islamist movements and sectarian conflict in Pakistan and Afghanistan, he edited the volume, India, China, Russia: Intricacies of an Asian Triangle (India Research Press, 2005).