The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2014

66 JULY-AUGUST 2014 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FS Reporting: Craft, Context and Practice The Craft of Political Analysis for Diplomats Raymond F. Smith, Potomac Books, 2011, $23.62/paperback, $16.50/Kindle Edition, 174 pages. Reviewed by Stephen W. Buck Three years after its publication, retired FSO Ray Smith’s The Craft of Political Analysis for Diplomats holds up very well. He starts with a clear definition of political analysis as “the attempt to con- vey an understanding of how authority and power relations operate and evolve within and between governments and between government and society.” This is not an academic tome, how- ever. It focuses on the practical and is particularly relevant for Foreign Service officers. In a foreign affairs universe filled with organizations pursuing worthy goals, he reminds the reader that “the diplomat works with a specific primary objective in mind: to protect and pro- mote his country’s interests…not those of all mankind.” Accordingly, in the end all diplomatic reporting needs to answer the question, “What does this mean for my country?” Smith does a good job of delving into the different purposes of diplomatic political analysis “to inform, explain or influence the universe of Washington audiences” for Foreign Service report- ing. He quotes one colleague as observ- ing, “Embassy reporting must add value to what policymakers learn from news reports; it cannot hope to substitute for or compete with news organs in report- ing ‘fast facts.’ The primary value of a field report, then, is to tell policymak- ers what they need to know and to sort out what’s important from all the other things Washington is hearing.” So how to do this? This is where Smith really shines. In chapters titled “The Analyst’s Personal Tool Kit,” “The Analyti- cal Tools,” “Criteria for Political Report- ing: The State Department View” and two case studies from his own reporting from Embassy Moscow on the collapse of the Soviet Union, he probes deeply into what is needed and what works. While he occasionally allots more space to theory than I needed, Smith makes very useful points about the importance of clear, concise writing to attract policymakers’ attention and, in particular, the importance of sources and a real understanding of the culture— political, religious and social—of the host country. Smith’s research into the criteria cited by State awards committees leads him to rank the following attributes in descend- ing order of importance: usefulness; analytic and interpretive content; sources and contacts; style; and cultural and linguistic skills. He then excerpts some declassified cables that won the Director General’s Reporting Award, and explains why they won. His thoughtful penultimate chapter, “The Compass and the Weather Vane,” addresses the fraught question: “What does the professional diplomat do when he thinks his government’s policies are wrong or counterproductive?” He answers by citing examples of how Embassy Moscow’s reporting helped reshape U.S. policy over time. Pursuing the chapter title’s metaphor, Smith wisely con- cludes: “The best diplomatic professionals, like good sailors, know they need both the weather vane and the compass. The weather vane tells you the course that you can steer. You cannot sail directly into the wind [i.e., challenge established policy]. You must choose a course that allows you to keep your boat under control while heading as closely as possible towards your desti- nation. Keeping your internal compass working while the wind is not under your control and shifting erratically around you is one of the conscientious diplo- mat’s fundamental personal challenges.” The book’s final chapter, which discusses the impact of technologi- cal change and the risk of irrelevance, reminds us that the Foreign Service milieu so many of us operated in years ago—reading and assessing clues hidden in newspapers in the fashion of Krem- linologists—is gone. Sometimes CNN and other media outlets report what is happening overseas before the post knows it has even happened. Moreover, Washington can Skype, tweet or email in an instant. Yet this does not eliminate what Edward R. Murrow called “the last three feet” between a reporter or diplomat and his contact. Equally important, it does not eliminate the understanding that can only come from seasoned reporters who really knows the country they are in—and This book focuses on the practical and is particularly relevant for Foreign Service officers. BOOKS