The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2019

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JULY-AUGUST 2019 29 to have to choose between the two biggest powers as they did during the Cold War. Some in the international community have even begun to voice fears that the United States, tradition- ally relied on to be the global guardian of peace and stability, has become ground zero for sowing disorder, instability and distraction. Not only is this not a productive strategy (or even a strategy—what is it meant to accomplish?), but it is playing into Chinese hands, undermining global confidence in U.S. leader- ship and squandering opportunities to reshape the international system in ways conducive to U.S. interests and power. The other possibility is to pursue a mix of engagement aimed at shaping and cooperation, while pursuing a policy of balancing and deterrence that has worked well for 40 years and shows few signs of being seriously challenged by China in the near term. First, we need to put the lie to the notion that China doesn’t change, that it won’t respond to diplomacy, that talking to China is a waste of time, that it disregards agreements and wants to overturn the international system. Diplomacy has fundamentally changed China over the past 40 years, and has been a major con- tributor to the peace and prosperity that East Asia has enjoyed over that same period. Although it has land borders with 14 countries and 2 spe- cial territories, a few of which remain disputed, China has not been involved in any major conflict since the normalization of diplomatic relations with the United States in 1979. This would certainly not have been predicted at the time, based on past Even if China does not become an electoral democracy, the power of American influence in the world will surely change China, just as China’s growing influence will change America.