The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2019

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JULY-AUGUST 2019 35 as well as the disposition of the existing tariffs, will likely end up in the laps of the two presidents. The Importance of Building Coalitions A trade agreement with China will be good news in the short term, because it will produce a positive bump in the financial markets. But the path to lasting improvement in the relationship, as well as political success for President Trump, is a narrow one. It requires a strong agreement that the Chinese actually imple- ment. If the agreement is only about buying more stuff with a few intellectual property concessions thrown in, it will be heavily criticized as both a policy failure and a failure of the president’s self-proclaimed negotiating skills. Even if it is better than that, the likelihood of full Chinese compliance is low. So what might look like, and will certainly be touted as, a great success when it occurs may not look so great a year later if it becomes clear that very little has changed, or the United States has restarted the trade war with new tariffs due to Chinese noncompliance. President Trump, who does not have a history of looking ahead to the possible consequences of his actions, should do so very carefully in this case, as the nega- tive outcome that is possible next year will be a lot closer to the election than the success of an agreement announced this year. Sadly, that may be the most likely outcome, even though it does not serve either country’s long-term interests. One important piece missing in this equation is the role of other countries. President Trump, who is a noted skeptic of Coalition building also implies a recognition that the real commercial battleground with China is neither here nor there, but in third countries where the playing field is more level.