The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2019

44 JULY-AUGUST 2019 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL New Framework Needed If the United States and China cannot find a way to develop a workable consensus, it will pose a systemic risk of monu- mental proportions—not just to the global economy, but to international order as we know it, and to world peace. Both countries need an international system that functions, because international order is one of those things that is simply too big to fail. And so, the alternative is unacceptable. And that is why I am hopeful that statesmanship will prevail. We are proceeding down divergent paths, and we are in danger of facing a long winter before we reach what may still be a rather patchy spring. But I believe a spring will come. So the questions are, how long will this winter last, and how much unnecessary dysfunction and pain will be inflicted along the way? The answer will be determined by the capacity and will- ingness of leaders in Washington and Beijing to think cre- atively—and sometimes even disruptively. In 1972, our leaders established a framework for a world beset by Cold War and locked in ideological conflict. At various points, they’ve had to recalibrate. Today’s world looks nothing like the world of the 1970s, or of the 2000s, or even of the years when my friend [People’s Republic of China Vice President] Wang Qishan and I tackled the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. We’ve reached another of those consequential moments. And the stakes are higher than ever before. We must craft a new framework that works for today’s world, not the world of the past. And for that, we need statesmanship—wise and strong leadership in Washington and Beijing. n If the United States and China cannot find a way to develop a workable consensus, it will pose a systemic risk of monumental proportions. FS COMMUNITY BUSINESSES