The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2020

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JULY-AUGUST 2020 73 FEATURE The COVID-19 pandemic has not constrained Russia’s activity in the Middle East, but it is unclear whether Moscow has a longer-term strategy for the region. BY ANGE LA STENT T he COVID-19 pandemic has largely diverted media attention away from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Yet the war in Syria continues, with its devastating human toll; and, as the recent Saudi-Russian spat over oil prices reminds us, the pandemic has exacer- bated tensions in the volatile region. As the United States pulls most of its troops out of Syria and is gradually withdrawing from the region, Russia has moved in to fill the vacuum and has reinforced its presence in Syria while its relationship with Turkey has become more brittle. Moreover, Russia’s most recent foray into Libya, where it supports a rebel leader challenging the United Nations–recognized government, is creating new tensions with both the United States and Turkey. What are the longer-term prospects for Russia in the region? Russia’s return to the Middle East is one of the major successes of President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy. After the USSR’s col- lapse, post-Soviet Russia did not have the wherewithal to sustain previous commitments in the region, and largely withdrew. But when Putin came to power 20 years ago and the Russian economy began to recover, Russia gradually ventured back into the region. Russia’s RETURN TO THE Middle East Angela Stent directs the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown Univer- sity. She has served in the State Department’s Office of Policy Planning and as national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelli- gence Council. Professor Stent is the author, most recently, of Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest (Twelve, 2019). ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/SVETLANASHAMSHURINA