The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2022

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JULY-AUGUST 2022 21 Speaking Out is the Journal ’s opinion forum, a place for lively discussion of issues affecting the U.S. Foreign Service and American diplomacy. The views expressed are those of the author; their publication here does not imply endorsement by the American Foreign Service Association. Responses are welcome; send them to journal@afsa.org. the advanced MiG 29, new T-72 tanks and BRDM-2 armored vehicles. Further, working with the relevant Serbian ministries, Russia has opened up a Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center in Nis; though it is touted as a nonprofit organization, its military capabilities are clear. In addition, the two countries have participated in joint military activities with Belarus called the Slavic Brother- hood. It is telling that during the recent border dispute with Kosovo, the Russian ambassador and military attaché were seen at a Serbian military base while Ser- bian armored vehicles and planes were moved to Kosovo’s border areas. This is a clear indication of how the Kremlin leadership wishes to test NATO and E.U. resolve in the heart of Europe. A Set Pattern Russia’s actions follow a set pattern: the promotion of instability beyond its borders in order to occupy Western and NATO resources in areas that the West deems a low priority within its overall strategic goals. The Balkans are a con- venient area for crisis-manufacturing by Russia, which has used numerous methods formulated in the Kremlin kitchen to keep NATO and the West strategically tied. For example, by keeping Kosovo as an issue of contention Russia wishes to drive a wedge within the E.U. and tie Serbia more closely to Moscow. The Serbian push for the creation of the Union of Serb Municipalities within Kosovo, like the dangerous precedent of territorial swaps, is meant to create lasting instability and bring into question the principles of sov- ereignty and multiethnicity in societies. These strategies were active in North Macedonia, where Russia attempted to influence the 2020 NATO referendum, stirring sectarian tensions with rumored plots of the country’s dissolution. In Montenegro, too, Russia actively worked with elements from Serbia to bring about a coup and has, with the sup- port of Serbia and the Serbian Orthodox Church, sought to raise ethnic tensions to undermine Montenegrin statehood and national identity. Yet the weakest link in Balkan equilib- rium is Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Russia has worked with local Serbian nationalist leaders to undermine 26 years of attempted stabilization and reform. With Serbia, Russia has given sup- port to the efforts of the Milorad Dodik regime in Republika Srpska to undermine Bosnian state institutions, bringing the country the closest it has been to another war since 1995. These actions by Serb nationalists challenge the ability of NATO and the E.U. to bring stability and pros- perity to their immediate neighborhood. With the recent events in Ukraine, Dodik has come out in support of Russian actions while at the same time severely testing the established pro-Western politi- cal consensus that existed in Bosnian state-level institutions. In a call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Dodik spoke of activating an established plan discussed during his prior visit to Russia and subsequent meeting with President Putin. With the growing Russian frustration in Ukraine, this could mean a potential widening of Russian military action in the Western Balkans. A Growing Challenge We can no longer afford to sit by and watch this growing challenge by Russia and Serbia to the security of NATO and the E.U. The growing military expendi- tures and closer ties between Serbia and Russia need to be checked by a renewed commitment on the part of NATO and the E.U. to integrate the Western Balkan nations into these organizations. Our re- engagement in the region needs to offset the already established network of insta- bility that has been created by Russia. Sanctions and economic pressure need to be applied against actors who wish to undermine the hard work of the last 26 years. NATO should seek to engage more vigorously in the region, including to signal to Russia that further instability will not be tolerated. Sanc- tions would need to be expanded to cover more of President Dodik’s party cadre, and a clear decision by NATO should be made that would station rapid-reaction troops within Bosnia and the wider region to deter possible attempts by Russia to deploy its special forces via Serbia. The Balkans played a central role in the breakdown of the European order before World War I. We cannot allow it to play a similar role today. With Ukraine at war and the challenges posed by this new world order, we need to show strength and determination, sending a clear mes- sage to actors in the region who wish to undermine NATO and the E.U. that the values we hold dear, the values that are currently being challenged in Ukraine, will not be allowed to languish. n