44 JULY AUGUST 2024 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL The United States has the world’s largest and most dynamic economy, an almost unimaginably capable military, and a Foreign Service that has shaped the course of human history for more than a century. If the prognostications hold true, however, the bipolar-turned-unipolar 20th century will give way to a multipolar 21st century increasingly defined by strategic competition among states, global climate challenges, mass migration, and unforeseeable technological advancements. Yet despite declarations of the end of the “American Century,” U.S. values, institutions, and people remain the greatest potential force for marshaling the global response to the challenges of the next century. Political Analysis: Cribbing Kissinger Realism, as articulated by Henry Kissinger, calls for understanding the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. Despite its simplicity, many, if not most, miscalculations in international FEATURE BY JOSH MORRIS The Ideal Foreign Service To honor the 100th birthday of the U.S. Foreign Service—and AFSA’s role as the “Voice of the Foreign Service”—the Journal held a writing competition for members with cash prizes, with third place sponsored by Christchurch School. The topic: Looking ahead to the next century, describe the ideal Foreign Service, as an institution and a profession. We were thrilled to receive 65 submissions, and judging was challenging. Name-blind submissions were evaluated by a volunteer panel on the basis of originality, cogent and concise reasoning, clarity, and applicability. This essay, by Josh Morris, won third place; the first-place essay was published in the May Journal, and second place in June. We congratulate Mr. Morris and extend sincere thanks to our judges. —The FSJ Team affairs stem from a desire (despite at times overwhelming evidence to the contrary) to see the world as we wish it to be. Fortunately, just as the U.S. intelligence community (IC) begins many interagency meetings with a “stage-setting” assessment of the situation, so too can the Foreign Service provide interagency leadership with a realism-compliant accounting of a foreign nation’s interests, motivations, vulnerabilities, and redlines. While the FS must maintain a clear distinction between its objective “ground truth” and any follow-on policy prescriptions (a challenge largely avoided by the IC), the dual role is essential to ensuring well-informed U.S. foreign policy. Looking through the realism lens, the greatest threat the United States will face in the next century will not be authoritarianism, communism, or violent extremism. Such malign forces will certainly persist, and require redress, but will increasingly be understood as symptoms of a deeper failing of governance, public trust, and national cohesion. Indeed, the greatest threat—and principal charge of the Foreign Service—will be addressing both FSJ Centennial Writing Competition 3rd Place Winner
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