The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

again as a player, not a dictator. Many share the view of Paul Frazer, a former Canadian diplomat who is now a Washington-based consultant on bilateral issues, that an engaged America at world forums would be like “welcoming back somebody who was missed.’’ Yet despite all the excitement his candidacy engenders, there is a long litany of unanswered questions about where bilateral relations would head under an Obama presi- dency: • Would he be able to improve the flow of commerce across the Canada-U.S. border? • Is his publicly stated threat to renegotiate the North America Free Trade Agreement a product of longstand- ing conviction, or was it forged in the crucible of the Ohio primary? And is his position on that still evolving? • In the face of a worsening energy crisis, would he really turn his back on the opportunity to tap the Alberta oil sands because of ecological concerns? • How quickly can he shift Washington’s focus from Iraq to Afghanistan, moving two U.S. combat brigades there and potentially saving Canadian lives in the south of the country, where they are dying in disproportionate numbers? A Trying Eight Years If he prevails in November, Obama will come to office with the burden of trying to meet unprecedented expec- tations that have built up over eight rancorous years of George W. Bush’s administration — a daunting task that he almost surely cannot live up to. The die may have been cast for bilateral relations in 2000, when a Canadian Broadcasting Company satirist named Rick Mercer grabbed Bush at a Michigan cam- paign event and coaxed him into solemnly thanking “Canadian Prime Minister Poutine’’ for his endorsement from Ottawa. (Poutine is a Quebec delicacy consisting of french fries, gravy and cheese curds, a mystery to most of the rest of the country.) After that inauspicious start, the Bush years have been among the most tumultuous for cross-border relations in generations. Some of the bad blood bordered on the juvenile: witness the senior communications aide to one- time Prime Minister Jean Chretien, who called Bush a “moron’’ at an international conference in Prague. A member of the governing Liberal Party caucus called Americans “bastards’’ in the run-up to the inva- sion of Iraq, while a senior Cabinet minister in the Chretien govern- ment said Bush was guilty of a lack of international statesmanship for deciding to go to war there. In return, Bush canceled an offi- cial visit to Canada in May 2003. After Paul Martin assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party, he campaigned so hard against Bush in 2006 (bashing Washington’s climate change policy, among other criticisms) that the U.S. ambassador to Canada, David Wilkins, was compelled to launch an extraordinary public intervention, reminding him that the U.S. president was not on the Canadian ballot. As if all that were not enough, the two countries have clashed over continental missile defense, softwood lum- ber (a dispute that was finally resolved under the Harper government) and tough new U.S. rules for border cross- ings, including a requirement for Canadians to present enhanced identification to traverse the 49th parallel by land. Then there was the rendition of a young Ottawa man named Maher Arar, whisked away to a grave-like cell in Syria where he was tortured, even after he told the American authorities who detained him while he was transiting New York’s JFK Airport that he wanted to return to his home and family in Canada, where he held citizenship. The Harper government finally awarded him some $9.75 million in compensation for its role in the affair, but the Bush administration has never apologized. And the U.S. continues to bar Arar from entering the country, based on evidence the Harper government has rejected. A Steep Learning Curve? Obama has shown signs of his own learning curve. Last summer he spoke about the “president’’ of Canada. And his campaign recently sent out a magazine transcript in which the Canadian prime minister is referred to as the president of Hartford. Then there is NAFTAgate, an affair which, despite its F O C U S S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 21 Obama has shown signs of his own learning curve. Last summer he spoke about the “president’’ of Canada.