The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

unoriginal moniker, has become a major embarrassment to the Harper government and explains the extraor- dinary distance at which it kept McCain during his June visit. The leaking of a Canadian diplo- matic note, which interpreted com- ments from Obama economic advis- er Austan Goulsbee to mean the can- didate would bash NAFTA as a polit- ical ploy, not an actual policy plan, hurt the Democratic nominee in the Ohio Democratic Party primary. But it could also color relations between an Obama adminis- tration and the Harper government. It was the biggest bilateral gaffe since onetime Canadian ambassador to Washington Raymond Chre- tien was overheard in 2000 saying the election of Al Gore to the White House would be better for Canadian needs than the election of Bush. Still, Obama’s senior foreign policy adviser, Susan Rice, has Canadian links and knows the country well. And Goulsbee at least received a crash course on Canadian politics after the leak. If, as expected, Obama is ushered into office with an enhanced Democratic congressional majority, there will be pent-up demand on Capitol Hill for quick, dramatic domestic action, while the international priority will be Iraq. The onus will be on the Harper government to cut through the clutter of domestic and international demands and convince an Obama government that its concerns deserve priority. A Familiar Face Sen. McCain, on the other hand, has traveled exten- sively throughout Canada, has family there and knows members of Parliament and the Canadian Senate. He is a strong backer of NAFTA and traveled to Ottawa earli- er this year to make that point in a speech that stressed the value of the Canada-U.S. alliance. As a senator from a southwestern border state, McCain is well-informed on trade and immigration issues. Although he is tacking back to the center on bor- der security — as Obama doubtlessly will — he has already alienated elements of the Republican base by backing comprehensive immigration reform on the southern flank of the U.S., which critics called an amnesty for illegal immigrants. This is important to Canada because those who follow bilateral issues in both countries agree that the “thickening” international bor- der and the Department of Home- land Security’s inbred suspicion of Canadians are issues that require urgent attention by the new admin- istration. Anything that happens on the American southern flank will side- swipe Canada on the northern flank. The issues touch on commerce, tourism, security — even the failing infrastructure at the Detroit-Windsor crossing. Tougher security measures brought U.S. visits to Canada to a 35-year low in 2007, and wait times for Canadian visitors and Canadian goods heading south increased 20 percent in one year. One study found that tighter border restrictions cost Canada $30.6 billion in U.S. exports in 2007. Listening — and Worrying A smooth, efficient border is crucial to Canadian interests because even with tougher restrictions, eight of every 10 visitors to Canada come from the United States. Trade between the two nations is staggering, totaling $1.5 billion per day; and Canada is the largest trading partner of 35 states, including Obama’s home state of Illinois. Last year, the U.S. exported $248.9 billion worth of goods and services north of the border, 65 percent of all Canadian imports, and imported $313.1 billion from Canada, representing 76 percent of all Canadian exports. So even after Obama moves to dial back his pledge to unilaterally force a renegotiation of NAFTA, Ottawa lis- tens. And worries. Canada is also the largest foreign supplier of energy to the U.S., providing 17 percent of American oil imports. So when Obama starts talking about turning off the tap on Alberta oil-sand imports because they are a dirty energy source, Ottawa listens. And worries. The province of Alberta had planned to boost production from 1.3 million barrels a day to 3.5 million barrels a day over the next decade, and any move to cut off those exports will also become entangled in NAFTA. F O C U S 22 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 If Americans are being asked to take a leap of faith on a first-term U.S. senator, Canadians are vicariously doing the same.