The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

get back to normal, assuming he adopts former President Bill Clinton’s approach of maintaining the U.S. focus on promoting democratic reforms in Egypt and other Arab countries — and so long as he does that more effec- tively than Bush has. Shadi believes Obama will appeal to pub- lic opinion in the Arab region to convince them to adopt such reforms. Conversely, if McCain is elected, he will keep the current U.S. hardline policy in place. For these reasons, the opposition in Egypt foresees better chances for strategic ties with the United States under an Obama administration. Mounir Fakhri Abdel Nour, a former member of the Egyptian Parliament who is now secretary general of the Al-Wafd Party and a mem- ber of the Egyptian Human Rights Council, grants that whether McCain or Obama wins the election, the new president will continue to advocate the adoption of politi- cal reforms in the Middle East and around the world. However, he expects Obama to be more diplomatic in his approach. A Return to Multilateral Diplomacy? Beyond the bilateral relationship, there is the broader question of how Obama and McCain would address often-contentious regional issues. Many Egyptians support withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, which they believe have led to instability in the region; but they differ on how rapidly the drawdown should occur. Those who advocate gradual withdrawal do not want Iraq to be left in a mess that could lead to civil war; in addition, many Egyptians are afraid of Iran’s growing influence in Iraq, which they expect to acceler- ate after the withdrawal of American troops. Amb. Al-Reedy predicts that if Barack Obama wins the election, he will work to keep his promise to with- draw U.S. troops from Iraq — contrary to John McCain, who has repeatedly expressed his intention to adhere to Bush administration policy, even if it means staying in Iraq for 100 years. However, he expects Obama’s main priority to be a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops in a way that will not leave the country in shambles. In con- trast, Al-Reedy says, McCain will be more interested in making Iraq an effective part of the U.S. strategy to con- trol the Middle East as a whole. On the other hand, Al-Reedy is also convinced that no future U.S. president can afford to disengage himself from regional diplomacy the way George W. Bush has. Thus, a Pres. McCain may have to be more active than he would like. Amb. Shalaby also foresees continuity in America’s Middle East policy. But the style would be much different depending on who takes office in January. Specifically, he predicts that Obama will take a multilateral approach in his foreign policy, centered on listening and working with the United States’ traditional allies in the Middle East and elsewhere. While he is cur- rently constrained by the need to present himself as a centrist to win the election, he will still seek to follow his own path if elected. For instance, it will not be easy for Obama to maintain his readiness to negotiate with Tehran over its nuclear program against pressure to take a hard line. But he will still place more emphasis on a diplomatic approach than Bush has or McCain would. The two analysts agree that Obama will follow Bill Clinton’s example by actively engaging himself in diplo- matic efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This will be even more true if the current negotiations between Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert produce a framework for further talks. Dr. Soliman concurs to some extent. Yet while he does not foresee any major shifts in the strategy underly- ing U.S. foreign policy under Obama or McCain, he does see potential for a shift in the tactics the new administra- tion uses to implement it. For one thing, he cites a ten- dency for Republican administrations to resort to force to solve problems — unlike Democratic administrations, which tend to favor diplomacy. For his part, Dr. Shadi notes that the thrust of U.S. foreign policy is set by the interplay of various American institutions, including Congress. Thus, the broad out- lines of American diplomacy do not depend very much on the outcome of elections. However, each new presi- dent has room to set his own priorities. For example, if Obama wins in November, he will devote more attention to working with the European Union on the energy issue than would his opponent. Nor will he focus on the war F O C U S S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 27 Egyptian experts disagree about how quickly a Pres. Obama would move to resolve the Palestinian- Israeli conflict.