The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

excitement. Such a victory might even rebuild the image of the “American Dream,” so the fate of his promises of changing how politics is conducted in Washington will be closely watched by many Hungarians. For many people here, the restoration of America’s promise goes beyond the end of the current antipathetic foreign policy. After all, it is not just international relations that determine the life of a nation; Hungarians watched astonished as this land of the free responded to the threat of terror by curbing civil liberties after 9/11. It seems that Americans continue to worry more about their security than about their liberties. Both pres- idential candidates strive to look tough on national secu- rity, and the controversial provisions of the renewed Patriot Act are not a campaign issue. This surprises many in Hungary, who will be keen to see how these domestic aspects of the war on terror will unfold during the next American presidency. On the level of intergovernmental relations, Hungary will remain a partner of the United States in stabilizing both Iraq and Afghanistan, irrespective of the election outcome and whether it is McCain’s or Obama’s policy that will start to take shape in the Middle East. In October, Budapest will send 80-100 troops to Afghanistan to join the 230 currently serving with the International Security Assistance Force. And at the Bucharest NATO summit this past April, it offered a spe- cial unit that can be deployed anywhere in Afghanistan, including its most dangerous regions. Meanwhile, the nations of “Old Europe” largely rule out a greater combat role for their troops. In the case of Iraq, however, there has been some dis- appointment. When Hungary joined the U.S.-led coali- tion forces there five years ago, it expected that its com- panies would be able to share in the billions of dollars being spent to rebuild the country. But most of the bid- ding firms have realized by now that they have no chance against their American and Middle Eastern competitors. The Role of Russia For Hungary, just west of the ex-Soviet republic of Ukraine, the most important issue for the next American president to address is how to handle a resurgent Russia. Moscow’s August intervention in Georgia, purportedly to defend South Ossetians against Tbilisi’s “aggression,” conjured up alarming memories of Cold War rhetoric. So did its earlier response to U.S. plans to establish missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic: suspending its par- ticipation in the Treaty on Conven- tional Armed Forces in Europe and warning Warsaw and Prague that it would target sites in their territories with its own mis- siles. Budapest hosted one of the talks between the United States and Russia last year, where Washington tried to persuade the Putin government that its missile defense plans are justified by the threat posed by such rogue countries as Iran and North Korea. It also offered to share data with Moscow that it previously shared only with its NATO allies. The U.S. presidential elections might have a direct impact on the fate of this conflict. The Czech Republic signed a treaty to allow Washington to set up a radar base in July, though its ratification in Parliament is far from certain. In response to Moscow’s growing bel- ligerence, Poland may soon do so as well, though it remains unsatisfied with what Washington has offered in compensation and worries that the U.S. may drop the whole plan if a Democratic president is elected in November. The problem for Hungary is that it might find itself in a no-man’s land between the United States and Russia. In economic terms, such a buffer zone has already devel- oped in the region, as Russia tries to build an economic stronghold. The main field of Russian expansion is, of course, energy, and the consequences are not limited to Eastern and Central Europe. They also concern the United States, which is interested in finding ways to channel Central Asia’s wealth toward Europe without crossing Russian territory. It is also trying to help the ex- Soviet states in that region break free of the Russian embrace and to find transit routes for their natural gas, so that they do not need to rely on Moscow as their only buyer. Budapest also has to decide how to handle several del- F O C U S 30 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 For many people here, the restoration of America’s promise goes beyond the end of the current antipathetic foreign policy.