The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

my of the Soviet KGB to head the Hungarian National Security Office. Orban has a good chance of becoming prime minister again in 2010 — or, given the current political turmoil in Hungary, even sooner if early elections are held. Hungary’s foreign policy orientation may well become a campaign issue, and trying to gain the support of the incoming U.S. president will surely play a role in this game. A recent study by the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (a government-spon- sored foreign policy research center) predicts that Obama and McCain would take the same basic approach toward Moscow. Obama regards Russia as “neither an enemy nor a friend,” and there is no sign of willingness on his part to restore closer relations. And McCain’s tradi- tional realist logic does not even contemplate the possi- bility of a partnership with Russia. This suggests that whoever will be the next U.S. president, the distance Budapest will have to bridge between Washington and Moscow will not become shorter. Other Issues As for the future of transatlantic relations, the author of the study points out the fact that figures close to McCain hold highly skeptical views about Europe’s capa- bilities. It is thus unlikely that he would make an effort to create a common platform for what he calls “democra- tic states.” The European countries cannot expect to be regularly consulted on American foreign policy steps by a McCain administration. It is more likely that he would choose his partners according to his goals, much like the “coalition of the will- ing.” This approach could lead again to frictions in Europe, similar to that of “Old Europe” and “New Europe,” potentially enhancing the role of small coun- tries like Hungary. Obama’s presidency holds the promise of a more mul- tilateral approach. For Hungary, this suggests that the main institutions shaping its American relations would be NATO, then the European Union. But as expectations about Obama’s multilateralism fly high across the world, it is worth noting that such an approach might lead Washington to demand more from its partners. For Hungary, just like Europe as a whole, one of the most important fac- tors in judging the next American presidency will be its willingness to cooperate in the field of global warm- ing. As the United States is seriously affected by high oil prices, there is a chance that the next president will step up the efforts to lay down the foundations of a more sustainable economic development. The Demo- cratic Party’s majority in Congress might also make this task easier. Both McCain and Obama demand mutuality in reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases, but much will depend on China and India. The two governments received a promise at the G-8 summit in July that rich countries would take the lead in curbing emissions. But the documents issued at the summit had very few of the concrete goals needed to keep greenhouse gases from growing, and Europe would like to see a much more determined commitment from the United States. The European Union, for its part, made a unilateral pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 20 percent by 2020, irre- spective of what other countries do. Finally, the next administration’s approach to global trade issues will also be closely watched in Hungary. While McCain stands for an open world trade system, Obama gives voice to the more and more widespread anti-globalization and protectionist views of the American public. This suggests that he might engage in trade conflicts as president — most probably with China. If that happens, protectionist efforts might also be reinforced within the European Union, where there is already a constant battle between member states on how to deal with the influx of cheap — and often low- quality — Asian imports. For all these reasons, Hungarians are probably more interested in this year’s U.S. presidential election than ever before. Not only Americans think of it as a battle of historic significance; it seems so from the other side of the Atlantic as well. Seen from Hungary, the prospects are bright: each of the candidates has the potential to become a respected U.S. leader. However, there are several issues that will test bilateral relations in the coming years. n F O C U S 32 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 Trying to gain the support of the new U.S. president will surely play a role in the upcoming Hungarian elections.