The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

focused mainly on McCain, known as a VietnamWar vet- eran, and Hillary Clinton, recognized for her years as first lady. It came as a surprise to most Uruguayans that Obama beat Clinton, but now they consider him the favorite in November. Obama stands out because he opposes most of Bush’s policies. Most Uruguayans also believe that he and his fellow Democrats are more inclined than the Republi- cans to pass legislation that will help legalize the status of immigrants in the United States and welcome them. On the other hand, his protectionist rhetoric stirs real con- cerns, both within the Uruguayan government and the pri- vate sector. Some fear he would add barriers to interna- tional trade, perhaps imposing restrictions on beef or other farm products by alleging potential pests or diseases. It is possible that Obama would be willing to negotiate trade benefits with Mercosur or bigger economic groups rather than doing so bilaterally. Of course, multilateral talks would favor larger countries such as Brazil, with 192 million people, and Argentina, with 40 million, diluting Uruguay’s ability to promote its own interests. But the good news is that Obama shares many of our priority con- cerns, such as development of alternative energy sources. So negotiations with Mercosur would likely end up help- ing all its members, even tiny Uruguay. The Future The big question for most Latin Americans is whether the next U.S. president will pay more attention to their concerns. Or to put it another way: The debate does not center on who would be better for the region, but on whether it makes any difference at all who moves into the White House in January. This election comes at a time when the United States is losing ground in the hemisphere. The war in Iraq has damaged its image outside its borders, the U.S. economy is in recession, and China is emerging as a key business competitor. The Bush administration has focused so much time and money on fighting terrorism that its total aid to Latin America last year was roughly equivalent to F O C U S S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 35