The Foreign Service Journal, September 2008

hero, as well as his stances on glob- al warming and on torture — is well known. Yet that is not how he is defined. “McCain means war,” a Berlin commentator wrote in July, citing how the candidate hummed “Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.” Nor do McCain’s confrontational views on Russia do anything to reassure Germans. Poised for Disappointment? Yet many members of the political elite warn that relations with the U.S. will not automatically run smoothly if Barack Obama wins in November. Up to now, it has been easy for Berlin to turn down requests from the disliked Bush administration — for example, to send more German troops to Afghanistan. Such requests would be much more difficult to rebuff coming from a President Obama, even though there is very little support among Germans for expanding the country’s military presence overseas. Furthermore, because Obama was born well after World War II and his worldview has not been shaped as much by the Cold War lens, some experts warn that the transatlantic relationship might be less of a priority for him. Yet while little is known about Obama’s foreign policy positions, the German public sees him as peaceloving and multilateral, which seems to be enough. Obama had never been to Germany before his trip to Berlin in July, so the announcement of his visit there caused widespread excitement. The country was the centerpiece of his trip to Europe. His initial plans to speak at the Brandenburg Gate caused a controversy, due in part to the fact that the foreign minister, a Social Democrat in Chancellor Merkel’s grand coalition, used Merkel’s reluctance to allow Obama use of the historic site as a way to separate himself publicly from her for the first time. In effect, Obama’s visit marked the beginning of the campaign leading up to next year’s German elections. The venue Obama ultimately chose, the Victory Column, not only defused the issue but is almost as symbolic as the Brandenburg Gate. Local coverage of his visit has only increased Obama’s status as a political pop star in Germany. Der Spiegel devoted a cover story to his visit (the second time it has put him on the cover) titled “Obama, an American Idol,” while Stern maga- zine titled its story, “Savior or Seducer?” And the cover of the political daily Taz depicted him as Superman. There were also many stories detailing Obama’s foreign policy ideas — as far as he has been specific about them, anyway. The danger is that in their high hopes, Germans are not only falling for a Democrat, but one they believe must be practically a European himself. But they forget the fundamental differences between the United States and Europe. So they are shocked when Obama does not speak out against a Supreme Court rul- ing on gun control, and when he supports telecommuni- cations surveillance. And they feel bewildered when he calls for a greater role for religious groups in administer- ing government assistance. For all these reasons, Germans are in for a disap- pointment, says Stelzenmüller. As much as they like Obama’s message, they need to prepare themselves for what his policies would look like in practice and how much he would be bound by facts and events once in office. He would most probably not sign the Kyoto Protocol; he would expand the military; and even he would not be able to make the United Nations popular with most Americans. Once Germans get beyond those unrealistic expecta- tions, however, there would be room for a new era of friendship with America. The style of communication would be different, for one thing. After all, an Obama- led America would be closer to Germany than Bush’s America — just not as close as Germans hope on issues ranging from the Iraq War and dealing with Iran to cli- mate change policies. Still, the fact that Obama wants to take action against proliferation and restart disarmament talks, and sup- ports multilateral action, will bring him tremendous good will — and maybe even the political leverage to push Germans a little farther than they want to go. Obama adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has said that if Europe wants to share the decision-making, it will also have to share the responsibilities and the burdens. Germans will be reluctant to do so, but Obama is in a unique position to convince them. n F O C U S 40 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 8 Local coverage of his visit has only increased Obama’s status as a political pop star in Germany.