The Foreign Service Journal, September 2022

26 SEPTEMBER 2022 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL T he fact that most of the world’s future workforce will be in Africa merits greater attention. expand, going from about 1.4 billion today to possibly more than 4 billion in 2100. I am at a loss to see how Africa can cope with this number of people. The phenomenal growth of Africa’s population underscores the fact that it is the only region in the world which has not achieved a demographic transition—i.e., its birth rates remain high. Further, this growth in population is spawning rapid urbanization, which often translates into the growth of large informal settlements. The dire consequences of such unprec- edented population growth, coupled with a massive rural exodus, on Africa’s development prospects are without historical parallel. A Constrained Workforce. The fact that most of the world’s future workforce will be in Africa merits greater attention. While the working population in high-income countries is dwindling, the overall working population in Africa is increasing. Yet most adults in Africa remain jobless. If the litmus test of development is job creation, Africa can be judged a failure. A central ques- tion for wealthier countries with vacant jobs is how to engage Africans to fill these jobs. A huge constraint on the use of the available labor force in Africa is the low educational and health status of the people. In most countries on the continent, a substantial percentage of the population is illiterate. And the prevalence of tropical illnesses such as malaria limits the contributions of its labor force. Low scores in the education and health sectors are key deter- minants keeping most African countries mired in the bottom ranks of the HDI. Host governments and donors need to accept that these countries will always be in the lowest HDI ranks as long as these two key indicators—education and health—remain low. If the objective is to reduce poverty, improvements in these indicators are essential. The COVID-19 pandemic has added to Africa’s burdens. On average, less than 10 percent of Africans are fully vaccinated, and there is a fear of new virus variants originating in Africa. The low percentage of Africans vaccinated represents a health threat to the entire world. An Agricultural Paradox. Africa is also the only region in the world that has not had an agricultural productivity transition. Crop yields remain a fraction of what they are in other regions, and average farm size is small compared to other regions. The average age of the African farmer is increasing as young people abandon rural life for the towns and cities. The absolute number of hungry Africans (in the millions) is rising. Food import costs for African countries are also rising. Yet Africa has the potential to not only feed itself but the rest of the world. In this regard, it represents something of a paradox. Currently, the shortage of food in Africa is being made worse by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Higher population densities oblige farmers to cultivate smaller acreage and marginal land. Part of the problem is a lack of access to the improved inputs needed to cultivate intensively. Farmers’ encroachment onto marginal lands has also added to large-scale deforestation and land degradation. Further, ram- pant illegal logging has resulted in the disappearance of millions of acres of Africa’s forests. The lack of secure rights to land impedes any progress in dealing with Africa’s agricultural productivity failure. Only an estimated 10 percent of African farmers have legal title to their land. Africa remains the only region in the world where land ownership has not become fundamental to successful farming. Coupled with this challenging agricultural production picture are negative nutritional factors, and these, too, hold Africa back. In many African countries, malnutrition among children is of crisis proportions. If good nutrition is the foundation of life, Africa has no solid foundation. Challenges to Democracy. Further complicating the picture, ongoing civil conflicts have resulted in more than 20 million people fleeing their homes, either to become internally dis- placed or refugees in neighboring countries. With the rise in violent conflicts and unfavorable changes in the climate, this number is expected to grow. Added to this number are thou- sands of desperate migrants who try to escape poverty by mak- ing the perilous trek north to Europe. There is much handwringing over the backsliding of democracy in Africa. Do not get me wrong. I amnot for military coups that result in uncertainty or constitutional coups that maintain in power the same corrupt leaders, but I want what is best for the African people, particularly for future generations. Democracy works best in a low-income country when it is effective at reducing poverty. I do not believe “good governance” requires the establish- ment of a widespread participatory democracy process mod- eled on wealthier countries. I also question whether a function-