The Foreign Service Journal, September 2022

30 SEPTEMBER 2022 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Contrasting Futures In Nigeria in 2016, I had an opportunity to experience two diametrically opposing glimpses of Africa’s future. One day I had a long discussion with the then governor of Borno State, ground zero for the depredations of Boko Haram, the extremist group that has so terrorized Nigeria’s Northeast. Beyond the immediate problems, Governor Ali Modu Sheriff explained that while it is common knowledge that Africa’s population will double between now and 2050 (to 2.5 billion), few realize that much of that growth will take place in the vast Sahel—the harsh zone between fertile plains and the Sahara Desert, stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, an area that includes Borno. The region, which is enflamed by extremist violence, also contains some of Africa’s weakest states, least-edu- cated populations, the greatest poverty with limited economic opportunities and the fewest rights for women. With such char- acteristics, I could envision an even grimmer future of greater instability, violence and mass migrations. However, the next day, I had an opportunity to meet with Nigeria’s returning Mandela Fellows, a program under President Barack Obama’s “Young African Leaders Initiative, ” which brings some of Africa’s brightest young people to U.S. universities for summer programs. During our discussions, I had an epiphany: Never in my life had I encountered a sharper, more vision- ary group of young people—these were future leaders sharing similar life goals and dreams as my Texas Tech University honors students, and they were eager to help their countries achieve a much brighter future. In my view, the determining factor between the contrast- ing futures offered by the governor of Borno and the Nigerian Mandela Fellows comes down to Africa’s youth. Will these millions and millions of young people, in countries with low median ages, be a force for instability or dynamic growth? And the answer comes down to this: Will they have economic oppor- tunities (good jobs) and decent governments, or will they be frustrated by the lack of those essentials? Will they be the world’s new consumers or disruptors? There is no reason Africa’s emerging youth “tsunami” should not have access to great jobs, because Africa’s potential is enor- mous. Others have recognized this, even if U.S. institutions, including most of our businesses, have con- tinued to focus on Africa’s prob- lems. Already, in the decade before COVID-19, seven of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies were African; and by 2050 one out of every four workers in the world will be African. But beyond Africa’s population explosion, its major significance to the 21st century will be its prominence in the globe’s transformation to a “green economy.” Tapping Africa’s Potential The continent contains some of the world’s largest reserves of rare-earth elements and minerals like copper and bauxite, key components in emergent green tech. For example, while a gasoline-powered car contains about 50 pounds of copper, a fully electric vehicle has 175 pounds, and a wind turbine 4.7 tons. Just one African country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, con- tains more than half of the world’s reserves of cobalt, an essential component in batteries and other renewables. Because of its overall mineral wealth, the DRC is referred to as the “Saudi Arabia of the 21st century,” and that’s not an exaggeration. Shortly after coming to power in 2018, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi made it clear that his first preference would be to partner with U.S. compa- nies in developing these resources. Unless the United States grasps such opportunities quickly, they will pass; others have recognized Africa’s value and are using it to advance their own global aims. For decades, the U.S. was Africa’s largest trading partner, but this ended in 2009 when China surpassed us with about $200 billion in annual trade. Since then China has continued to increase its African engagement economically, culturally and diplomatically, and has included 39 of Africa’s 54 countries in its more-than-trillion- dollar global “Belt and Road Initiative.” Beyondmassive infrastructure andmining deals all over the continent, China excels at something the U.S. does poorly: engaging with African leaders at the highest level. Africans notice that Euro- peans get calls from the U.S. president or Secretary of State, while their leaders—except in rare circumstances—deal with the assistant secretary or under secretary. U.S. presidential, vice presidential and even Secretary of State visits to the continent are rare, while the highest-level PRC officials visit regularly and often. When I came back to State and started visiting Africa, I saw F or decades, the U.S. was Africa’s largest trading partner, but this ended in 2009 when China surpassed us with about $200 billion in annual trade.