The Foreign Service Journal, September 2022

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | SEPTEMBER 2022 35 and the world’s future has been well covered, but it bears repeating when considering the opportunities and imperatives that other coun- tries are reviewing and responding to with a clear vision. The African continent is home to approximately 1.3 billion people, with an esti- mated population growth rate of 2.7 percent—more than double that of South Asia (1.2 percent) and triple that of Latin America (0.9 percent). The United Nations projects that by 2050, Africa’s population will nearly double to 2.5 billion people, and by 2100 triple to 3.8 billion. These numbers are even more significant in light of the 2020 Lancet study that predicts every other region could see its population decline during this same period. In other words, by the end of this century, one-third of the people on the planet will be African and largely concentrated in cities, with 65 percent of the top 20 urban areas projected to be on the continent. Nigeria, already the most populous African country, is expected to nearly double in population to 400 million by 2050, overtaking the United States as the third-most populous nation in the world, with Lagos poised to become the world’s largest city. The Brookings Institution also projects that by 2050, Africa’s combined business and consumer spending will exceed $16 trillion, making the continent an attractive mar- ket for African producers and global exporters alike. This means that a continent with the youngest population in the world will set trends in trade, technology, climate sustainability and urban development that will dictate the future of the planet. If demographics are destiny, then Africa is poised to be the center of global affairs within a generation. Prior to the COVID-19 global pandemic, Africa was home to six of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world. The United States has a growing two-way trade relationship with the continent that exceeded $64 billion in 2021, but this only repre- sents 1 percent of U.S. trade, and there is plenty of room to grow America’s economic partnership with Africa as the continent continues to grow and attract global trade and investment. The continent that gave rise to mobile money and digital payments set record highs in 2021 for venture capital (VC) investments in its fintech sector, according to Partech’s 2021 Africa Tech Venture Capital Report. That report showed that African VC investments tripled from the prior year, grew faster than any other region and are growing three times faster than global VC investment. Africa also has an exciting new trade bloc, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), that unites the continent into a single giant market and promises to reduce red tape, harmonize the regulatory burden, and significantly dimin- ish tariffs and customs procedures. This ambitious project, which entered into force in May 2019, is in its first phase of implementation, with negotiations underway to set the terms for trade in goods and services, and second-phase talks also in progress to address investment, intellectual property rights and competition policy, among other things. The third phase will include the digital economy and a special protocol on women and youth. As of the Tralac Law Centre’s May 2022 status update, no trade had yet taken place under the AfCFTA regime, but there is significant interest in supporting its successful implementation. [See page 34 for a map and list of African countries that have ratified the AfCFTA agreement.] While the goal of AfCFTA is to spur intra-African trade, it also sets the framework for foreign investors with the promise of a single trading bloc that is twice the size and population of the European Union. Today, as the continent sets the standards for its trade relations, it is working with China through a recently signed cooperation agreement to share experiences on intel- lectual property, digital trade, competition policy and customs procedures. Significantly, as the continent ascends to become the most dominant region on the globe, China is the country positioned to influence the policies Africa develops in the criti- cal sectors for today and tomorrow. If We’re Not Present, We’re Not Partners Africa policy in the U.S. government and adjacent policy community has been for the most part an area of bipartisan collaboration, but the continent has not been seen as a stra- tegic priority for Washington. This is markedly different from how allies and adversaries have viewed Africa. Countries as diverse as Turkey, Japan, Russia, South Korea, India and the United Kingdom have regular, ongoing summit-level talks with the African continent as a whole. Through the African Union, the continent has articulated a plan to achieve “the Africa we want”—the A.U.’s Agenda 2063 for sustainable development A frica also has an exciting new trade bloc, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), that unites the continent into a single giant market.