THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | SEPTEMBER 2024 31 Luna Ruiz is a foreign affairs officer in the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations Office of Advanced Analytics. She supports the climate fragility portfolio and has a background in energy systems, environmental policy, and data science. Kayly Ober serves as a senior adviser in the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations. She has worked at the intersection of climate, migration, and conflict issues for the last 15 years in various capacities, including most recently as the senior program officer for the climate, environment, and conflict program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. The effects of climate change can intensify security challenges in struggling nations. This bureau is using real-time data to predict and prevent crises in vulnerable areas. BY LUNA RUIZ AND KAYLY OBER UNLOCKING RESILIENCE Using Data to Drive Positive Climate Action in Conflict-Prone Regions The worsening effects of climate change are disproportionately affecting fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) areas. Resilient states—those that engage constructively with their citizens, maintain functioning institutions, and provide essential services—have the capacity to absorb shocks and manage stresses, maintaining political stability and preventing conflict. In already fragile states, however, the FOCUS ON THE CLIMATE DIPLOMACY LANDSCAPE changing climate can intensify security challenges, overwhelming struggling governments and increasing the risks of violence, instability, and conflict. Within the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO), new programs are being developed to gather real-time data that can be used to advance policy and to predict and circumvent potential crises in at-risk nations. Repercussions of Climate Change Climate change effects are not isolated occurrences. Rather, they interact with additional pressures and contextual factors, resulting in diverse compound risks. This complexity is notably pronounced in FCVs, where the effects of climate change and conflict are mutually reinforcing, creating a dual burden. The factors that make a place vulnerable to conflict (e.g., exclusive political institutions, low economic development, inequitable distribution of vital resources) are the very same factors that make a place vulnerable to climate change. The ramifications of conflict, spanning both physical destruction and institutional breakdown, exacerbate the deterioration of systems crucial for resilience against climaterelated shocks.
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