32 SEPTEMBER 2024 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Compound climate-fragility risks include: • Resource competition coupled with high population growth, geopolitical tensions, or intergroup rivalries may increase the likelihood or severity of conflict. Clashes over land, water, or other climate-affected resources may be localized (e.g., farmer–herder clashes in West Africa), regional, or international. • Livelihood insecurity driven by changes in weather patterns can lead to shifting migration routes, increased reliance on illicit income sources, higher rates of gender-based violence, and vulnerability to recruitment by violent extremist organizations. For example, in the Karamoja region of East Africa, the decreasing viability of typically male livelihoods has led some men to appropriate women’s resources and businesses, sometimes using physical force. • Extreme weather events and disasters increase fragility by decreasing economic opportunities and destroying assets, exposing ineffectual governance, increasing marginalization, or displacing certain populations. Fragile states often lack the resilience to withstand such shocks, and malign actors may step in to fill the void. In some drought-affected countries, insurgent groups are seeking to increase their credibility by mediating resource-related disputes. • Transboundary water tension may be exacerbated between riparian states as increasingly scarce water resources collide with mismanagement in the service of short-term political gain. Prominent examples include the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, the Blue Nile River Basin, the Jordan River Basin, and the Lake Chad Basin. • Volatile food prices and rising food insecurity, partly driven by climate change–related decreasing crop yields and disrupted food production, create dangerous cycles of risk. In Burkina Faso, violent extremist organizations have driven farmers out and prevented harvests from being collected, further compounding food insecurity. A Data-Driven Whole-of-Government Approach The Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations leads U.S. efforts in conflict prevention. CSO’s climate fragility team works with scientific agencies to identify and mitigate the unintended consequences of climate change and promote peace in vulnerable communities. The team prioritizes work in Libya, Haiti, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and across Coastal West Africa, including in Togo, Benin, Ghana, Guinea, and Côte D’Ivoire, using a data-driven approach to foster innovation, collaboration, and evidence-based decision-making in addressing climate fragility. The 2019 Global Fragility Act (GFA) and subsequent U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability (SPCPS) recognize the nexus between climate change, environmental degradation, population displacement, weakened governance, and Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations Anne Witkowsky speaking at a CRAF’d steering committee meeting in October 2023. To her right is UN Under Secretary General for Policy Guy Ryder, and to her left is Gray Barrett of CSO’s Office of Advanced Analytics. UN EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY GENERAL
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