34 SEPTEMBER 2024 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL • INFORM Warning. This risk-monitoring tool from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) presents multihazard information from a wide range of sources to provide insights on global risk trends, forecasts, scenarios, and events, helping crisis response stakeholders stay ahead of potential complex risks and make informed decisions on resource allocation. • CLIFDEW-GRID. Developed by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees for use by humanitarian actors, governments and policymakers, researchers, and academics, CLIFDEW-GRID is pioneering the development of the first risk index for forced displacement due to slow-onset hazards in West and East Africa. • Geospatial Dashboards for Climate Assessment and Early Warning (GEOGUARD). Developed by the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs’ Innovation Cell and academic partners, GEOGUARD will provide insight on environmental risk factors by coding data points on environmental conditions and geocoded conflict in a database used by the UN and its in situ partners in 29 countries across target regions. The information gleaned from these five projects will help turn early warning into early action, including in the countries and region selected as priorities under the Global Fragility Act. Although integrating physical and environmental data with social science data poses challenges, investing in this area enables us to make more informed, evidence-driven decisions. The projects funded through CRAF’d exemplify this approach. The emphasis on collaboration and information-sharing underscores the collective responsibility in addressing climate fragility risks. Through partnerships between governmental agencies, research institutions, and humanitarian organizations, we can foster a holistic understanding of complex risk landscapes. This collaborative ethos not only enhances our capacity for early warning but also facilitates coordinated response efforts, amplifying the efficacy of interventions. Early warning systems serve as crucial tools for identifying and responding to climate-related threats before they escalate. By integrating climate and environmental data into decisionmaking processes, stakeholders can better address climaterelated risks, make educated decisions about intervention and support, and promote peace and stability. From Data Collection to Policy and Programming CSO’s Office of Advanced Analytics collaborates with interagency partners to conduct comprehensive research on the human security implications of climate change, informing evidence-based interventions and promoting sustainable peace and security. Recent efforts include a partnership with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the Department of Defense to study herder vulnerability to climate hazards in West Africa. By analyzing patterns of climate-related shocks and seasonal changes, we were able to identify emerging risks and vulnerabilities, empowering communities to proactively mitigate potential conflicts. This commitment to data-driven policymaking extends to the grassroots level, recognizing the importance of engaging local populations to develop sustainable solutions. An example of this approach is the pilot climate security program launched in border communities in Benin. The program aims to reduce the risk of conflict and promote resilience at the local level by strengthening communication between farmers and herders and incorporating early warning and climate data into traditional mediation processes. The program seeks to empower women as community dialogue facilitators, ensuring that diverse voices are heard and included in conflict prevention efforts. The interplay between climate change and conflict in fragile and conflict-affected states necessitates a nuanced and data-driven approach to promote stability. By coordinating relevant stakeholders, integrating early warning systems, and promoting local solutions, data miners at the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations aim to not only enhance societal resilience but also save lives and resources. n UN EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY GENERAL At a CRAF’d meeting in October 2023, from left: Gray Barrett of the State Department’s Office of Advanced Analytics; Assistant Secretary Anne Witkowsky; and Mark Slezak, from USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance.
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