The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

20 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 L IKE A MERICANS , A RABS ARE DIVIDED OVER THE CHOICE BETWEEN B USH AND K ERRY . T HEY KNOW THE WINNER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN RESHAPING THE REGION ’ S FUTURE . B Y S ALAMEH N EMATT F O C U S O N T H E 2 0 0 4 E L E C T I O N S he U.S. has never been more involved in the Middle East than it is today. Both on the military and national-security levels, and in the political and eco- nomic spheres, Washington is, by far, the leading player and power broker in this perpetually volatile part of the world. Since 9/11, the U.S. has used force to overthrow two hostile regimes in that region: the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. And, apart from using its military prowess and political influence to shape the future of these two countries, the U.S. has used its inter- national clout to launch an ambitious project aimed at democratizing 20 Arab states in the region, from Morocco to the Persian Gulf. The Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative, adopted at the G-8 summit in Sea Island last June, is viewed in the region as an American attempt at achieving a series of “regime changes” by non-military means in the heart of the Arab world. The prospect has arguably “terrorized” many dic- tatorships and authoritarian regimes throughout the Middle East, perhaps even more than the U.S. applica- tion of brutal military force in Afghanistan and Iraq. Some of these regimes are already active in Iraq in an attempt to bog down American forces to keep the U.S. “monster” from moving farther into the region. Syria, which is strategically allied with Iran, has made no secret that it hopes to give America a bloody nose in Iraq to stymie its regional ambitions. Other Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Jordan, have been more subtle in their resistance to American plans — showing outward diplomatic cooperation, while escalat- ing anti-American propaganda in their state-run media. Amman and Cairo, in particular, feel they need to walk a fine line in view of generous annual U.S. econo- mic and military aid grants. Others, especially the Persian Gulf Arab states, have shown more reluctance to go along with American plans, hoping Washington would eventu- ally abandon its “forward strategy” in the Middle East. Whether the Bush administration used the attacks of 9/11 to overthrow the Taliban to build oil and gas pipelines linking Caspian Sea reserves with hot Asian markets through Afghanistan, or whether it did so to try to bring international terrorists to justice, people of the region remain dubious about American intentions. When America moved next to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime, people and governments in the Arab world, though very few had any sympathy for the brutal Iraqi dictator, became more and more convinced that the U.S., T T HE A RAB S TREET I S W ATCHING Salameh Nematt is Washington bureau chief of the London-based, pan-Arab international newspaper Al- Hayat.