The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

sor emeritius of the University of Stellenbosch, puts it starkly: “The world cannot endure another four years of George Bush in the White House.” The gray-haired, out- spoken Terreblanche, who as an Afrikaner academic did the unthinkable by breaking ranks with the apartheid regime in the 1980s and entering into secret negotiations with the banned African National Congress, admits he only reflects the views of the liberal intellectuals he con- sorts with. “But everyone I talk to is deeply hostile towards Bush. Who knows what he’s going to do next if he’s re-elected?” Nor is it just Bush’s unilateralism that concerns Terreblanche. “It’s the neocons around him, people like Paul Wolfowitz, who want to use American power to shape the world the way they see it. People like Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, who are the worst of cap- italists and ideologues.” Like many secular intellectuals, he is also uncomfortable with the way Bush carries his religion on his sleeve. Henry Jeffreys, political journalist and president of the South African National Editors’ Forum, agrees with Terreblanche, but sees another motivation at work. “There’s a great interest in this year’s race among the establishment elite. The South African media have been following the process pretty closely. But so far it has been personality-driven. This has not been about John Kerry; it has been about Bush, his lone-cowboy stance.” He adds that South Africans remember the controver- sial 2000 election and wonder whether it is going to hap- pen again this time. Teresa Heinz Kerry is another factor, getting good play in the media because of her Mozambican and South African background, and her out- spoken nature. Jeffreys does not believe that South Africa and the pre- sent American administration are natural partners. “South Africa tries very hard to fit into the foreign policy role the U.S. wants it to play, but Bush’s ‘go it alone’ atti- tude makes it difficult.” He notes that the country is proud of the fact it managed to negotiate a peaceful end to apartheid. And in the view of Jeffreys and other ana- lysts, that accomplishment is integral to President Thabo Mbeki’s foreign policy, which is based on solving problems through international partnerships while respecting the sovereignty of other countries. “In other words, Kerry’s multilateralism is more in line with the South African vision,” Jeffreys says. But not every prominent South African shares Terreblanche’s strong views, nor do they believe interest in the presidential race is as intense as he portrays it. Patricia de Lille is a grass-roots politician if ever there was one. Tough as nails, she is an independent crusader against government corruption, a champion in the fight against HIV/AIDS and a fierce protector of women and children. De Lille, who as a “Colored” member of parlia- ment enjoys electoral support across racial divides, thinks there is no real interest in the American contest at the public level in South Africa. “People watch it on televi- sion, but to most it’s just another grand American specta- cle with brass bands and balloons. They don’t see it as something that touches their life.” Always one to frown on lavish expenditure, as some- body fighting for South Africa’s poor, de Lille is particu- larly disgusted by the amount of money Americans spend on campaigning. She also believes Democrats and Republicans have converged politically to the degree that there is little to choose from between them. “There’s no activism in American politics anymore,” says de Lille, who has been given the freedom medal awarded by the city of Birmingham, Ala. “We South Africans can teach them to count ballots,” she adds. A senior South African diplomat who served in Washington, D.C., for many years offers yet another view. “Ordinary people in South Africa, the vast majority of whom are desperately poor, face a daily battle to survive. They may have an opinion on the U.S. one way or the other, but they have no time to worry about who ends up in the Oval Office.” Not Anti-American Professor Adam Habib, executive director of the democracy and governance research program of the Human Sciences Research Council in Pretoria, disagrees that the South African political establishment universally opposes Bush. “I have heard from powerful people who believe a conservative White House is better for South Africa. Citing Bush’s $15-billion HIV/AIDS plan, the Millennium Challenge Account, and his $60-million plan to support training of African peacekeeping forces, Habib notes their belief that “Bush has done more for the fight against AIDS and poverty than Clinton and all his rhetoric ever did.” Rather than ideology, Habib says South Africa’s main concern is what future concessions it will get from whoev- er wins the election. “Will the next U.S. administration F O C U S 24 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4