The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 3 T HE M AGAZINE F OR F OREIGN A FFAIRS P ROFESSIONALS Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published monthly with a combined July/August issue by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit organization. Material appearing herein represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent the views of the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSAMembers - $13 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mail- ing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Service Journal , 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Indexed by Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein does not imply the endorsement of the services or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. E- MAIL: journal@afsa.org. W EB: www.afsa.org. TE LEPHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service Association, 2004. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Printed on 50 percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. J O U R N A L OREIGN ERVICE S F Editor S TEVEN A LAN H ONLEY Senior Editor S USAN B. M AITRA Associate Editor S HAWN D ORMAN Ad & Circulation Manager E D M ILTENBERGER Business Manager M IKKELA V. T HOMPSON Art Director C ARYN S UKO S MITH Editorial Intern K RISTOFER L OFGREN Advertising Interns V IVIAN Z HANG Editorial Board H OLLIS S UMMERS , C HAIRMAN M ARK W. B OCCHETTI S TEPHEN W. B UCK P ATI C HAPLIN T ATIANA C. G FOELLER C AROL A. G IACOMO W ILLIAM W. J ORDAN L AURIE K ASSMAN B ILL W ANLUND T ED W ILKINSON F O C U S O N T H E 2 0 0 4 E L E C T I O N S 17 / E UROPE W ILL B E D ISAPPOINTED — N O M ATTER THE O UTCOME If Europeans had a vote in the U.S. presidential election, George W. Bush would lose by a landslide against any candidate. By Matthias Rueb 20 / T HE A RAB S TREET I S W ATCHING Like Americans, Arabs are divided over the choice between Bush and Kerry. They know the winner will play a major role in reshaping the region’s future. By Salameh Nematt 23 / I N S OUTH A FRICA , K EEN I NTEREST The strong South African interest in the campaign is largely driven by rising anti-Bush and anti-U.S. sentiment. By Deon Lamprecht 26 / I N R USSIA : T HE K REMLIN VS . THE P EOPLE The Kremlin’s pick in the U.S. presidential election would be quite the opposite of the Russian people’s choice. By Dmitry Sidorov 30 / T WO D EMOCRACIES , S HARED C HALLENGES Indonesians want a change in U.S. foreign policy because they believe this change will reverberate in domestic Indonesian politics. By Dini Djalal 34 / W HAT M ATTERS FOR A RGENTINA Despite official preferences, Argentina is prepared to work with either candidate on the country’s priority economic issues. By Mara Laudonia C ONTENTS O c t o b e r 2 0 0 4 Vo l ume 8 1 , No . 1 0 B EJING ’ S P ERSPECTIVE : F IRST , D O N O H ARM / 37 Whether Bush or Kerry wins in November, Beijing expects little change in Sino-American relations. By Yunzhao Pan T HE U.S. E LECTION — A V IEW FROM L ONDON / 40 For Britain, the outcome in November carries profound implications — both political and strategic. By Philip Stephens K EEPING S CORE IN THE C ONGRESSIONAL G AME / 43 AFSA profiles how your senators and representatives supported American engagement in world affairs. By Ken Nakamura F E A T U R E S C HALLENGING S AMUEL H UNTINGTON / 64 Samuel Huntington’s newest book expresses concern about the current wave of Hispanic immigration to the U.S. His worries are sincere but exaggerated. By John Dickson A PPRECIATION , P ART II: H UME A LEXANDER H ORAN , 1934–2004 / 67 By Susan Maitra Cover illustration by Michael Witte C O L U M N S P RESIDENT ’ S V IEWS / 5 Your Union Needs You By John Limbert S PEAKING O UT / 13 A Failure of Imagination By Beatrice A. Camp R EFLECTIONS / 84 By Thomas R. Hutson D E P A R T M E N T S L ETTERS / 7 C YBERNOTES / 10 B OOKS / 74 I N M EMORY / 75 I NDEX TO A DVERTISERS / 82 AFSA N EWS / C ENTER I NSERT