The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

34 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 D ESPITE OFFICIAL PREFERENCES , A RGENTINA IS PREPARED TO WORK WITH EITHER CANDIDATE ON THE COUNTRY ’ S PRIORITY ECONOMIC ISSUES . B Y M ARA L AUDONIA F O C U S O N T H E 2 0 0 4 E L E C T I O N S he U.S. presidential election finds Argentina-U.S. bilateral relations in a precarious state. It is difficult to foresee a new attentiveness toward Latin America in Washington, no matter who prevails at the ballot box in November. The main concerns of the White House are national security issues and, inevitably, U.S. foreign policy will focus on the Middle East. At the same time, Argentina is beholden to the world’s private investors, many of them Americans, in the utilities and banking sectors. And in connection with the estimated $100-billion debt default of 2001, it relies on continued U.S. sup- port for its recovery program. U.S.-Argentine relations were hit hard by the dra- matic events of December 2001, when the largest sovereign debt default in history toppled the Argentine government and rocked financial markets. The breakdown of law and order after the abrupt “pesoization” — the conversion to pesos of all dollar assets in the economy — the devaluation, and the freezing of utilities prices, was severe, and even today continues to trouble American businesses operating in Argentina. Nevertheless, the U.S. government played an important role in helping Buenos Aires to maintain relations with the IMF and World Bank. For the Argentine government, the key in relations with the next U.S. president, whoever he may be, will be to continue to re-establish ties with foreign investors, and cooperate in those “niches” U.S. for- eign policy has left open — not the least of which is security. Style vs. Substance Taking a closer look at the U.S. election, Argentine analysts observe that for both George W. Bush and John Kerry, Latin America is not a priority, though the Democratic candidate has put more emphasis on supporting the democracies in the region. “Despite the importance of the Hispanic vote, Latin America continues to occupy a very small space in the electoral campaign of the two candidates, whose programs for the region do not show substan- tial differences,” maintains political scientist Rosendo Fraga. Fraga believes both candidates are missing the strong connection between Hispanic immigrants and their families all around Latin America — a con- nection that is shown in the $30 billion in remittances expected for 2004, according to an Inter-American Development Bank study. T W HAT M ATTERS FOR A RGENTINA Mara Laudonia is the U.S. correspondent for El Cronista Comercial of Argentina.