The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 37 W HETHER B USH OR K ERRY WINS IN N OVEMBER , B EIJING EXPECTS LITTLE CHANGE IN S INO -A MERICAN RELATIONS . B Y Y UNZHAO P AN F O C U S O N T H E 2 0 0 4 E L E C T I O N S hinese interest in the U.S. presi- dential election traditionally hinges on one question: which candidate will be better for Sino-American rela- tions? This year is no exception. While scholars and media reports are discussing which candidate — incumbent President George W. Bush or Senator John Kerry — has a better chance of winning this year’s U.S. presidential election, the Chinese public is paying only limited attention. For most Chinese, the United States is a kind of one-dimensional construct, located on the other side of the globe, that uses its position as the world’s only superpower to bully other nations, China included, whenever it wishes. Nonetheless, the American election has great sig- nificance for Beijing, and it watches closely for indica- tions of what China policy a prospective president of the United States will adopt after assuming office. When Bill Clinton was campaigning on the Democratic ticket for the White House in 1992, his proposed China policy caused much worry in Beijing. In a televised debate with President George H. W. Bush on Oct. 11, 1992, Clinton attacked the Bush administration’s policy of maintaining engagement with China as “a mistake,” though he acknowledged the importance of the U.S.-China relationship. In par- ticular, he opposed the Bush administration’s stand in favor of unconditional extension of most-favored- nation trade status for China, and indicated that if he became president, he would be “firm” in pursuing the issues of human rights and democracy in China, utiliz- ing the most-favored-nation status as leverage. Yet it was during Clinton’s presidency that the United States and China concluded the 13-year-long negotiations for China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 1999, and it was also during his presi- dency that the two sides agreed to build a constructive strategic partnership. Then, in the 2000 presidential campaign, George W. Bush sharply criticized the Clinton administration’s China policy, saying that Beijing was not a “strategic partner” of the United States. On Jan. 17, 2001, U.S. Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell laid out a cautious new policy, describing China as “a competitor and a potential regional rival, but also a trading part- ner.” Progress after a Bumpy Start The worst episode in relations with China during George W. Bush’s presidency came less than three C B EIJING ’ S P ERSPECTIVE : F IRST , D O N O H ARM Yun Zhao Pan is the Washington correspondent for the Xinhua News Agency.