The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

Nor do they expect to see much change no matter who is elected. By contrast with the 1990s, when the two major political parties often attacked each other on the China issue during presidential campaigns, this year the “China factor” has given way to other prominent issues such as terrorism, Iraq, homeland security, employ- ment and the economy. This is an indication that the two parties have to some extent reached a consensus on the impor- tance of pursuing a continuous, sta- ble China policy, says Zhu Feng, a professor in the School of International Studies, at China’s prestigious Peking University. Zhu Feng concedes that it is risky to forecast trends in the China-U.S. relationship, one of the world’s most influential yet volatile nation-to-nation ties. But he expects that whoever is elected the next U.S. president will do lit- tle to upset bilateral relations. His views are shared by Tao Wenzhao, professor and deputy director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who correctly predicted four years ago, when China was a relatively hot topic in the campaign, that U.S. policy toward China would remain consistent. Still, Beijing will be watching closely for potential shifts in American policy toward China, particularly in the areas of counterterrorism cooperation, trade and, most of all, Taiwan. F O C U S O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 39 Taiwan remains the most important and sensitive issue in Sino-American relations, as it bears on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China.