The Foreign Service Journal, October 2004

40 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 F OR B RITAIN , THE OUTCOME IN N OVEMBER CARRIES PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS — BOTH POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC . B Y P HILIP S TEPHENS F O C U S O N T H E 2 0 0 4 E L E C T I O N S his year’s U.S. presidential contest, the most closely watched in living memory, is replete with paradoxes for America’s European allies. Tony Blair is George W. Bush’s staunchest ally. The British prime minister has never stepped back from his unwavering belief in the righteousness of the Iraq war. For all that their special relationship and the unpopu- larity of the war have drained his political capital at home, he never speaks of the U.S. president as any- thing but a trusted friend. Now comes the irony. Mr. Blair needs John Kerry to win the coming presidential election. The French and the Germans may be the public cheerleaders for a Democratic victory in November, but Britain has more to gain from it. An Exceptional Election U.S. elections rarely penetrate deep into Europe’s consciousness. Once chosen, of course, the occupants of the White House quite quickly make their mark on European opinion. JFK was revered for his youthful ambition. LBJ (unfairly, given his domestic achieve- ments) is remembered only for the Vietnam War, Richard Nixon for his narrow-eyed notoriety, and Ronald Reagan for his determination to defeat Moscow’s evil empire. But these were reputations built after the fact. It is rare for Europeans, of the British or the continental variety, to be fiercely partisan during the campaigns. The coming November poll is thus something of an exception. It is different because America is different. The status-quo superpower of the 1990s now looks more like a revolutionary hegemon; the architect of the postwar multilateral system has become an unapolo- getic unilateralist. If they were being honest, Europeans might also admit that the past few years have thrown up an uncomfortable truth, long obscured by the Cold War, about the essentially unequal nature of the transatlantic alliance. The collapse of commu- nism and the emergence of Islamist terrorism have suc- cessively underscored the extent of American primacy and downgraded Europe as a focus of Washington’s geopolitical interests. In a Europe forced to confront the limitations of its own power, the character and tone of George W. Bush’s administration have hardened the sense of estrangement. Thus the solidarity that followed the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — who can forget the Le Monde front page declaring we were all Americans, or the British T T HE U.S. E LECTION — A V IEW FROM L ONDON Philip Stephens is associate editor and chief political commentator of the Financial Times, and a biographer of Tony Blair.