The Foreign Service Journal, October 2005

facilitates reallocation of re- sources from military use and attracts aid and investment from the outside. Misreading the Situation In the belief that North Korea was on the verge of col- lapse, however, Bush adminis- tration hard-liners kept pushing for an economic embargo and naval blockade to strangle it to death. Yet all the North’s neighbors think that regime change can best be achieved through prolonged engagement. They know that attempts to isolate and starve Pyongyang will pro- voke it to arm even faster, which is why they won’t try. Instead, they have pursued talks of their own with North Korea, which persuaded them that it seems will- ing to deal. So why, in contrast, have U.S. policy-makers been so unwilling to countenance nego- tiating with North Korea before reaching for their guns? For many, it is a blank screen on which to project their own predispositions and prejudices. Given the endemic uncertainty about the DPRK’s nuclear capabilities and intentions, the years of hostility and the deep mistrust on both sides, the image of North Korea as a rogue state filled the vacuum of knowledge. A prudent response to uncertainty would have been to treat estimates of North Korean nuclear capabilities and intentions as rough guesses rather than facts, and to probe Pyongyang’s intentions through diplomatic give- and-take without running a high risk of war. The hard- F O C U S O C T O B E R 2 0 0 5 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 41 In the belief that North Korea was on the verge of collapse, Bush administration hard- liners kept pushing for an economic embargo and naval blockade to strangle it to death. SERVING THOSE WHO SERVE AMERICA S I NCE 1 9 7 1 2005 represents our 35 th year helping to maintain America’s fleet of vehicles throughout the world. All of us at D & M consider it an honor to have worked with all of you through these years. We are aware of the importance of your official and private vehicles, forklifts, generators, tools and equipment. We look forward to continuing this service in a professional manner. We are here to help, just ask! Gary Vlahov www.dmauto.com (516) 822-6662; FAX: (516) 822-5020; E-mail: info@dmauto.com