The Foreign Service Journal, October 2007

ative Immigration Studies at the University of California at San Diego, the fee paid to the “coyotes” who smuggle people across the border has risen steadily, from an aver- age fee of $900 in 1992 to around $2,000 today — an increase of 122 percent in constant-value dollars. The ris- ing cost of a crossing is clearly a function of the greater dif- ficulty and risk involved, although the rate of increase in the last few years has not been as sharp as might have been expected from the implementation of the tougher measures adopted by the U.S. to prevent illegal immigra- tion. Less than one-third of all candidates to cross over are caught and returned to the border city from which they launched their attempt. Many of them never go back to their hometowns, instead joining the burgeoning and dis- parate population that has transformed the Mexican side of the frontier from a collection of sleepy, dusty desert towns into a vibrant and fast-growing industrial metropo- lis. However, a surprising 69 percent of those who try to enter the U.S. illegally succeed in doing so undetected in their first attempt. And the chances of succeeding after being caught the first time exceed 90 percent, according to the CCIS. As long as the basic conditions that propel Mexican workers away from their homeland — namely, lack of work and opportunities for a better life —persist, and the cost of crossing the border does not become prohibitive, they will continue to flee to the U.S. A key to under- standing the extent and power of this draw is the fact that, on average, the productivity of Mexican workers is five times greater in the U.S. than in their native country. This is despite the fact that they are operating in an alien world where the language, the food, the culture and the customs are all very different, and they have left behind their basic support groups, including immediate families. The other key ingredients needed to move to the U.S. are information and personal connections. It is amazing to witness how easily the informal communications of family and friends spread the news of opportunities in their adopted communities, while also providing the nec- F O C U S O C T O B E R 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 19