The Foreign Service Journal, October 2007

It is crucial not only for the well-known economic activi- ties to which migrants tend to flock, like agriculture and construction, tourism and food preparation, houseclean- ing and child care, but also to other less familiar ones: e.g., the crab industry in Maryland, the mushroom plan- tations near Philadelphia, the wine industry on the West Coast and fruit harvesting all over the U.S. It is clear that the economic consequences of halting illegal immigra- tion for these industries would be devastating, although little empirical work has been done to estimate precisely the potential costs. Getting rid of all 13 million illegal immigrants residing in the U.S. would shrink the overall U.S. labor force by 5 percent, while the low-skilled labor force would drop by between 10 and 12 percent. Consider that in 2005, illegal immigrants accounted for 24 percent of the workers employed in farming, 17 percent in cleaning, 14 percent in construction and 12 percent in food preparation. Losing this work force, or even a substantial portion of it, would undoubtedly increase prices for the goods and ser- vices provided by the industries that hire large numbers of them. No Change: This currently appears to be the most likely outcome at the federal level. If so, local govern- ments will implement measures that try to limit or reverse the flow of undocumented workers, as we have seen appear with increasing frequency in many parts of the U.S. Such policies, with unfortunate racist overtones, would have negative consequences for the integration and dynamics of the communities that undertake them. The Contradictory Nature of the Border Seen from the south, the U.S.-Mexico border is a metaphor for many powerful economic and political dynamics, as well as a host of historical grievances and resentments. Many Mexicans are drawn to the border out of necessity and lack of local economic opportunity, cross- ing only reluctantly because they have grown up with anti- American prejudices. Successive Mexican governments used powerful nationalist propaganda to blame the United F O C U S O C T O B E R 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 21