The Foreign Service Journal, October 2008

O C T O B E R 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 55 illboards around Havana show a picture of Fidel Castro and the words “Vamos bien”: “We’re doing well.” Obviously, many Cub- ans would disagree, judging from the com- plaints one hears on the streets about infla- tion and low salaries. A good number of cit- izens would rather try their luck elsewhere. Yet in many ways, things are going rather well for the regime as the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Revolution approaches. The handoff of the presidency from Fidel Castro to his younger brother Raul earlier this year went off without a hitch, and seldom has the international picture looked more favorable. With every stumble Cuba’s large neighbor to the north takes (and there have been many), the mood among the Castroite faithful brightens. The emergence of a deep-pocketed, anti-American, pro- Castro government in Caracas has been a godsend for Havana, providing billions in oil subsidies. And it is hard to think of any country besides the United States that qualifies as an enemy of Cuba these days. Other billboards seen around the Cuban capital attempt to portray the privileged place Cuba holds among Third World countries, compliments of the revolution. One pro- claims: “40,000 children in the world die each day. None is Cuban.” That boast has some merit, given the resources the regime has spent to meet basic needs, going well beyond free medical care and education to include free day care. It costs just a few cents to take a bus or go to a ball game. And trans- portation, a historic headache for Cubans, has been eased with the arrival of hundreds of Chinese buses. Still, the average salary of $19 a month is a major source of resentment. And in addition to inflation and food short- ages, there is a chronic housing deficit. Since taking over as president in February, Raul Castro has embraced some reforms that could, over time, make life somewhat less burdensome. But no quick fixes are in sight. DVD players have been put on sale in some stores, generat- ing both curiosity and sticker shock; they cost the equivalent of $350, or 18 months’ income for the average worker. High costs have also impeded the great majority of Cubans from taking advantage of greater access to cell phones, tourist hotels and rental cars. Many Cubans yearn for other reforms, such as Internet access. But the regime sees this as a possible instrument for disseminating subversive ideas, and has shown no sign of flex- ibility on this point. Nor is there much evidence of follow-up to the modest liberalizing measures Raul Castro announced weeks after taking office in February. At revolution anniver- sary festivities in July, he said belt-tightening was in order because of high international oil prices and other factors. A Double Whammy None of this might be of much interest or concern to Americans — except for the fact that, since the early 1960s, the U.S. government has maintained a stringent economic embargo to pressure the Castro regime and create a climate for reform. Instead, the government has compounded the country’s problems by embracing a fundamentalist brand of socialism that has virtually no adherents anywhere else. Given this situation, a question arises. Who is more to blame for the country’s economic plight: Washington for iso- C UBA AFTER F IDEL S O FAR , NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE F IDEL C ASTRO ’ S RETIREMENT AS C UBA ’ S PRESIDENT . W HAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT U.S. ADMINISTRATION ? B Y G EORGE G EDDA George Gedda recently retired as the Associated Press’s State Department correspondent. A longtime contributor to the Journal , he has visited Cuba 30 times, most recently this spring. B