The Foreign Service Journal, October 2008

lating the island, or Havana for dis- couraging initiative, thereby inhibiting production? In fact, the two capitals’ policies are mutually reinforcing, subjecting Cu- bans to a double whammy. The re- gime’s goal, of course, is to ensure that minimal needs are met, thus avoiding the have, have-not dichotomy that existed previously. In that regard, the Cuban leadership, notwithstanding the embargo, has basically declared victory, as expressed in the “Vamos Bien” billboards. But one Cuban who is not on the bandwagon is Carlos (not his real name). At first glance, he would seem to be a candidate for a regime poster boy. He is en route to a free-of-charge education at the University of Havana, where he is a sociology major. But his bitterness was obvious when he told a visitor that a student who arrives for the fall semester receives ration cards good for only five months of the 10- month school year. He shrugged when asked how he was expected to get by once that period expires. Carlos said his income was limited to a tiny monthly government stipend, from which he had to purchase school supplies. He resents having to reserve a seat on a bus 15 days in advance to go home to distant Santiago, especial- ly when there is no wait at all for those who can pay with convertible curren- cy, thanks to the largesse of family members in Florida. Like many other Cubans, Carlos also worries about what kind of job awaits him once he gets his sociology degree. It almost surely will not pay much, for Cuba’s best and brightest don’t live much better than anybody else. Some physicians eagerly seek out after-hours patients who can pay for treatment in convertible currency. One doctor said his wife had to sup- plement his meager income by work- ing as a housekeeper for a foreign fam- ily. Her income, paid in foreign exchange, was seven times his. Indeed, the people who don’t have to rely on Cuban pesos are the best off. To the extent that there is a privi- leged class in Cuba, it consists mostly of those who receive help from rela- tives abroad in South Florida, in the form of cash deliveries and consumer goods carried on flights to Cuba. The Treasury Department reports it authorized 55,104 Americans, most- ly naturalized Cubans, to travel to Cuba in 2007, for the purpose of visit- ing family members. Inevitably, some of the dollars they leave behind with their relatives end up in government coffers. To limit the cash benefit to the regime, the Bush administration in 2004 restricted family visits to Cuba to one every three years. Remittances were limited to quarterly transfers of $300 per household to immediate family members. Cuba on the U.S. Campaign Trail The Bush administration has said there can be no accommodation with Cuba until political parties are legal- ized, political prisoners are released and democracy is restored. Both John McCain and Barack Obama support the U.S. embargo. But Obama wants to eliminate restrictions on travel and remittances. “It’s time,” he said, “to let Cuban- Americans see their mothers and fathers, their sisters and brothers.” Many Cubans welcomed the proposal, especially those barred from attending the funeral of a loved one. But the Bush administration opposes it; Com- merce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in May that the higher volume of Miami-Havana travel during the Clinton administration created “a rev- enue stream for the regime.’’ At one point this spring, Obama said he would be willing, if elected, to meet with Raul Castro without pre- conditions. But he later stipulated that such talks could happen “only when we have an opportunity to advance the interests of the United States and to advance the cause of freedom for the Cuban people.” Still, Obama would seem like a breath of fresh air to Cuban authori- ties compared with President George W. Bush, who has been among the most stridently anti-Castro leaders of the past generation. Many of his Cuban-American appointees, particu- larly in his first term, were anti-Castro activists. In 2004, the administration vowed to disrupt any “succession” from the elder to the younger Castro and promised to pursue a transition to a democratic Cuba. For their part, Cuban authorities have warned constantly about the pos- sibility of an American invasion under Bush. That never seemed a likely sce- nario, but surely Cuban officials took note earlier this year when McCain said that, as president, he would not “passively await the long-overdue demise of the Castro dictatorship.” Historically, the communist gov- ernment has seemed quite content to have a large, hostile neighbor as a ral- lying point for revolutionary solidarity and as a scapegoat for economic diffi- culties. With neither McCain nor Obama favoring the unconditional lift- ing of the embargo, U.S.-Cuban hos- tility is likely to endure. Obama made clear his views on the embargo in a May speech in Miami. “I will maintain the embargo,” he said. “It provides us with the leverage to 56 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 0 8 Washington and Havana’s policies are mutually reinforcing, subjecting Cubans to a double whammy.