The Foreign Service Journal, October 2008

and Democrats. Mostly as a result of this change, U.S. food deliveries to Cuba rose from $6 million in 2000 to $582 million in 2007. According to the Cuban government, this made the U.S. Cuba’s fifth-ranking trade part- ner. Congressional attempts earlier this year to further loosen restrictions on food sales to Cuba fell short. The embargo survives partly be- cause it is an extension of the Ameri- can domestic political process. Suc- cessive presidential elections have shown that hard-line anti-Castro plat- forms help carry Florida, a critical swing state, and are also influential in New Jersey. Without the support of Cuban-Americans in South Florida, Pres. Bush almost certainly would have lost the 2000 presidential elec- tion. But the clout of the anti-Castro groups in the region appears to be diminishing as old-guard militants die off and are replaced by younger, less ideological Cuban immigrants. How this trend will play out in November is unclear. The older generation may be smaller in numbers, but a higher per- centage tends to vote compared with more recent arrivals. Few issues command the attention of Cuban officials more than voting trends in South Florida, which they see as a key element in determining politi- cal support for the embargo. Getting Washington to lift it without significant political concessions by Cuba has long been a regime objective and would be seen as a momentous achievement. But, whatever the fate of the embargo, the idea of friendly ties seems out of the question so long as Cuba has a leader whose last name is “Castro” and who is a devout revolutionary. Anecdotal evidence suggests that, for ordinary Cubans, economic con- cerns transcend all others. To have a less burdensome life, Cubans are will- ing to embrace almost any measure, including the lifting of the embargo. A renewal of American tourism to Cuba no doubt would be a foreign exchange windfall for the island. Many Americans curious about the island would have the opportunity for a first- hand look. Some, unwilling to wait for politicians to change the rules, travel to the island outside the law, usually through third countries, such as Mexico and the Bahamas. As Fidel Castro observed a few years ago, if all lawbreaking visitors from the U.S. were prosecuted, many new U.S. pris- ons would have to be built. Cuban-Americans who visit the island, whether legally or illegally, often carry huge parcels filled with a variety of goods, ranging from vitamins to big-screen TVs. Hardly anyone makes the trip empty-handed. There is no way of measuring the value of the goods delivered to needy Cubans by visitors from the U.S. over the decades. Even without the embargo, Cuba’s potential as an importer of U.S. goods is limited because of a lack of foreign currency. But Cuban officials speak optimistically about the potential two- way trade offers. They cite the pros- pect of lucrative sales of nickel and cobalt to U.S. markets and possibly oil, from off the country’s northern coast in the Gulf of Mexico. The country also boasts an educat- ed work force that does not go on strike. But American companies may still be inhibited from investing there because, under current rules, the Cuban government hires all workers for foreign companies and also serves as paymaster. That means the euros (in the case of a European company) budgeted for worker pay are funneled through a government agency, while the money that reaches the workers is in Cuban pesos and is worth only a fraction of the true cost to the company. The govern- ment agency pockets the difference, ending up with a foreign ex- change windfall. There would no doubt be a hue and cry among some Americans if, once the embargo is lifted, any U.S. investor agreed to such terms. International labor groups decry the practice, argu- ing that it is tantamount to theft from workers. But Cuban officials say the lower pay scale is justified to prevent worker inequality. There are fewer reasons for keep- ing the embargo now than there were a generation ago. The Cold War issues — Cuban troops in Africa and close ties to the Soviet Union — are gone. Another issue that resonates less is political prisoners. These num- bered about 15,000 a generation ago; the figure is believed to be much smaller now. To the extent that human rights in Cuba attracts interna- tional attention, it relates more to the U.S. treatment of suspected terrorists detained at the Guantanamo Naval Base than it does to regime treatment of dissidents. Improving Havana’s Image There are other ways in which, to some, Havana has improved its image internationally. In an earlier day, anti- American vitriol poured from Fidel Castro’s lips; he once denounced American imperialism 88 times in a single speech. Nowadays, the decibel level is lower, owing mostly to his debilitating illness and the emergence of his much more restrained brother in the top spot. Beyond that, Cuba has long since given up armed struggle in its quest for revolution abroad. It now exports doc- tors, teachers and sports trainers. The task of destabilizing U.S. allies in the region, such as guerrilla-infested Col- ombia, has been left to Venezuela. On 58 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 0 8 For ordinary Cubans, economic concerns transcend all others.