The Foreign Service Journal, October 2013

44 OCTOBER 2013 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL AFSA NEWS STATE VP VOICE | BY MATTHEW ASADA AFSA NEWS Views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the AFSA State VP. Contact: asadam@state.gov or (202) 647-8160 In last month’s inaugural column I outlined three broad labor management priori- ties: career and professional development, security and work/life balance. This month I would like to discuss career paths and profes- sional development for the Diplomatic Readiness Initia- tive/Diplomacy 3.0 genera- tion, which now represents more than half of today’s Foreign Service. FS 10 1 : SUPPLY AND DEMAND The supply of, and demand for, Foreign Service employees have ebbed and flowed over time as a result of department leadership, geostrategic priorities and congressional funding. Intake fluctuated from the below- attrition hiring of the 1990s, to the new millennium’s DRI and D3.0 historic hiring surges. Demand for Foreign Service employees increased because of the post-Cold War growth in independent states, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and shared exec- utive and legislative branch desires for an increased For- eign Service training capacity (aka “the training float”). CAREER PATHS The challenge for the department is how to accom- modate the Foreign Service’s rapid expansion and ensure that these new employees hired within the last 10 Positions, Promotions and Paths: Oh My! years have identifiable and rewarding career paths. The department has done a good job in introducing Career Development Programs for generalists and specialists to help prepare candidates for competition into the Senior Foreign Service. The CDPs are great at the individual level to guide professional development. However, AFSA members are beginning to express concerns about the macro picture. What happens to all of those new employees moving through the sys- tem—the proverbial pig in the python—as they start to approach the FS-2 and FS-1 levels? Where do they go, and how far and how fast? DOWNSTREAM IMPACT AFSA has started focus- ing on this macro question of career paths for general- ists and specialists. In the Foreign Service personnel system, position numbers drive promotions—which is why it matters when a Foreign Service position, par- ticularly a senior position, is permanently converted to a non-Foreign Service fill. This removes a Foreign Service position from the overall pool and has a corresponding downstream impact on all members of that skill code, not just the individual posi- tion in question. The impact is particularly acute in FS specialist skill codes that have few SFS positions to begin with. This is one of the reasons why AFSA has expressed concern about the disturb- ing trend of reductions in the number and percentage of senior positions encumbered by Foreign Service employees ( The Foreign Service Journal , September 2013) . In a rank- in-person personnel system such as that of the Foreign Service, every position mat- ters, as it is a potential posi- tion and promotion prospect for a member of that skill code, without which there would be one less opportu- nity. The department is going to need additional Senior Foreign Service positions if it is to accommodate the mem- bers of the DRI/D3.0 genera- tion as they progress through the system—not today, but gradually over time as they compete for positions. COHORT ANALYS I S The Bureau of Human Resources’ Office of Resource Management and Analysis ( STATE magazine, February 2011) is a great resource for personnel statistics. AFSA has encouraged this office to continue and expand its cohort analysis to better understand how employees who entered the Service in the last 10 to 15 years have progressed in their careers. Moreover, HR/RMA’s complex models also have a predictive quality that can be used to forecast future career progression and pos- sible promotion rates. What do the promotion prospects look like so that we can bet- ter calibrate employee expec- tations? What additional information—cohort analysis or promotion prospects— could be included in the department’s annual publica- tion of promotion statistics? The good news is that the department recognizes the coming challenges and has shown an interest in improving data analysis and distribution as part of an effort to better manage employee expectations, especially those regarding entry into the Senior Foreign Service. At one time, the rule of thumb was that a normal generalist career was one to the FS-1 level, and that one out of every three A-100 entrants would make it into the Senior Foreign Service. We do not know whether that is still the case. However, what we do know is that our people are our greatest asset and we owe it to them to “work the numbers” to be able to tell them what they can realistically expect. AFSA looks forward to partnering with the department in this endeavor. I look forward to hearing from you about career paths in today’s Foreign Service, especially from specialists. Next month I’ll be writing about union democratic gov- ernance—what it is and why it matters. n