The Foreign Service Journal, October 2016

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | OCTOBER 2016 29 as Secretary of State. She continues to have a good personal image within the Brazilian public and has cultivated a network of relationships with local politicians, diplomats, journalists and nongovernmental organizations, particularly those that assist children, improve health care and celebrate the African heritage of many Brazilians. Donald Trump, on the other hand, was far less familiar to Brazilians until he began his presidential campaign. Occasion- ally celebrity news coverage of his affairs, divorces and weddings appeared in the tabloids, as well as business reports on his real estate projects. But not until 2014, when the Brazilian version of “The Apprentice” premiered, did he receive regular media atten- tion here. …Intrigued by Trump During the primaries, Trump mentioned Brazil a few times— but only as one of many countries he claimed take advantage of the United States through unfair trade practices. In fact, America has consistently run trade surpluses with Brazil, one of the few major economies for which that is true. When Trump’s nomination by the Republican Party was almost assured, one of his aides, Walid Phares, said in a May 2 interview with Folha de S. Paulo that Brazil would be “more heard” by the White House under Trump than ever before. But he did not elaborate on how this would happen. Trump’s name has also been in the news this year because the first local hotel affiliated with his brand, the Trump Rio de Janeiro Hotel, was inaugurated just before the Olympics started. How- ever, a much more ambitious and controversial project—the Rio Office Trump Towers, five 38-story buildings—remains stalled. Construction should have started last year, for completion in 2018, but has been held up by allegations of suspicious financial operations, according to an investigative report published by Agencia Publica on Aug. 8. Even so, many wealthy Brazilians admire Trump and enjoy going to his casinos and hotels in the United States. His support among conservatives in Brazil should not be underestimated, as I can attest. On June 24 the business daily newspaper Valor Econômico ran a long article I wrote about the American election, in which I pre- sented several pieces of evidence to suggest that Hillary Clinton was the front-runner and would probably win the November poll by a relatively large margin, maybe even by a landslide. The article stirred many reactions from readers, most of them highly critical of my analysis. Some were aggressive, calling me a “leftist” and attacking me along with all the journalists who had predicted that Brexit (the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union) would fail in the British referendum held June 23. Citing the Brexit vote as a precedent, much as Trump had, my critics opined that Trump would win in November—despite the opposition of “intellectuals” like me. A Solid Bilateral Relationship Most respected foreign affairs analysts in Brazil have been arguing that although it usually does not make much difference for Brazil who is elected president of the United States, this year is different. Normally, the longstanding ties between Brasilia and Wash- ington (in business, science, the arts, higher education, etc.) are strong enough to smooth over minor political disagreements. This was most recently confirmed in the years when Presidents Luis Inácio Lula da Silva and George W. Bush led their respective countries. The two were far apart ideologically, but still got along well on a personal level. As a result, the bilateral relationship did not suffer much. After diplomatic relations reached their nadir in 2010, when Lula signed an agreement with Iran and Turkey to monitor the Iranian nuclear project against the wishes of the Obama administration, the overall bonds between Brazilians and Americans actually grew closer. In 2011, when Brazil launched Science Without Borders, an ambitious program to send 100,000 college students abroad, the United States was by far the preferred destination. Brazil also became one of the largest sources of tourists for the U.S. market. Brazilian investors bought such American businesses as Burger King, Budweiser and Heinz, to name but a few. Finally, institu- tions from both countries signed dozens of scientific agreements, and many American states have opened offices in São Paulo to foster business and relations at the regional level. Even after President Dilma Rousseff canceled a state visit Until recently, Brazilian politicians generally assumed that Republican administrations are better for our national interests than Democratic ones.