The Foreign Service Journal, October 2016

30 OCTOBER 2016 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL to Washington in 2013 when the National Security Agency was found to have recorded her personal phone calls, the overall bilateral relationship did not deteriorate. The Status Quo vs. the Unknown What now makes observers in Brazil uneasy is the possibility that a Trump victory could undermine the world geopolitical status quo, and the resulting instability could mar Brazil’s econ- omy, which is already reeling from President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment and other problems. This is not an idle concern. Consider Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric about traditional allies, be they members of NATO or Mexico; his pledge to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on cli- mate change; and his opposition to immigration in general and by Muslims, in particular. These and many other diatribes have the potential to harm Brazil, among many other countries. That said, there is no reason to believe either administration would set out to alter the bilateral agenda. On the Brazilian side, the Michel Temer administration has been much friendlier to the United States and to American investors than either the Lula or Rousseff governments. Chances are that bilateral trade will increase significantly, and more investments from the United States will flow into Brazil. Brazilians will watch the November election closely, a little bit concerned about the chances of Trump winning, but con- fident that nothing will affect the friendship and the common interests our two peoples have built up over the past centuries. Brazilians have never forgotten that the United States was the first nation to recognize their independence from Portugal. n Trump’s support among conservatives in Brazil should not be underestimated.