The Foreign Service Journal, October 2016

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | OCTOBER 2016 39 T he 2016 U.S. presidential election really matters toMexico. As North American Free Trade Agreement partners and bordering countries, the United States andMexico are linked through trade, investment, immigration and shared natural resources, as well as security and law enforcement challenges. We share a 2,000-mile border through which hundreds of thousands of people cross daily. Two-way trade between the United States and Mexico is valued at about $1.4 billion a day. Mexico is our top tourist destination, and the United States is theirs. The population of Hispanics of Mexican origin in the United States reached 33.7 million in 2012, according to the Pew Research Center, including 11.4 million immigrants born in Mexico and 22.3 million born in the United States. NAFTA, illegal immigration and securing the U.S.-Mexican border are major issues in the campaign. Donald Trump’s sound bites on these issues have provoked consternation and indigna- tion in Mexico. A poll published by Mexico’s Reforma newspa- Mexico , NAFTA and Election 2016 Though it is not the first U.S. election that has really mattered to Mexico, there may be more at stake this time than ever before. BY XEN I A V. WI LK I NSON Xenia Wilkinson is a retired Foreign Service officer. She served twice in Mexico City, from 1981 to 1984 and from 1991 to 1994. FOCUS ON THE U.S. ELECTION per in May showed that 83 percent of Mexicans prefer Hillary Clinton, compared to 3 percent for Donald Trump as the future U.S. president. Both candidates are skeptical about free trade agreements. In this period of slow economic growth, critics in the United States argue that NAFTA is to blame for job losses and wage stagnation, driven by low-wage competition fromMexico and a $60 billion bilateral trade deficit. Donald Trump called for “a total renegotia- tion of NAFTA, which is a disaster for our country. If we don’t get a better deal, we will walk away.” Hillary Clinton also expressed reservations: “I have said repeatedly that I would like to renegotiate [the agreement]. I think there were parts of it that did not work as hoped for.” Donald Trump’s hyperbolic comments about the U.S.-Mexico border andMexican immigrants generated evenmore indignation inMexico. InMarch, President Enrique Peña Nieto declared that his country will not pay for Trump’s proposed wall, and con- demned his “strident” tone. After Trump’s nomination, Peña Nieto took a different tack when he spoke to the press at the White House on July 22: “ToMrs. Hillary Clinton andMr. Donald Trump, I want to express my highest respect.” He pledged a “frank and open dia- logue” with the winner of the election, and declared: “The Mexican government will be observing with great interest the electoral process, but it will not give its opinion—it will not get involved.” Then, in a surprise initiative, Peña Nieto invited both candidates to visit him. Hillary Clinton declined the invitation. Trumpmet