The Foreign Service Journal, October 2021

30 OCTOBER 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL capability cannot compel good policy, but at least policymakers today have access to a one-stop shop of institutional knowledge that did not exist in 2001. The Biden administration has particularly stressed the need to address climate change as a driver of conflict and state fragility. Conflict prevention and climate change share the same unfortu- nate problem: The human brain is not well programmed to tackle either, and we have too few bridges between the politics and the science. We respond to the crisis in front of us, but our tendency with longer-term complex challenges is to revert to equally unwarranted optimism or fatalism. The nexus between climate and conflict is real: Of the 20 countries the International Committee of the Red Cross consid- ers most vulnerable to climate change, 12 are already experi- encing armed conflicts. Resource disputes that once could be managed now goad people to take up arms. Attempts to mitigate and adapt to climate change likely will spur their own conflicts, as new energy economies and environmental effects create new winners and losers. Reforming Risk Management. Some of S/CRS’ and CSO’s best work over the years involved small diplomatic teams far afield, often with military partners as in provincial reconstruction teams, but the post-Benghazi political environment reinforced a risk- averse department culture. CSO is addressing the resulting atro- phy. It is forming a Rapid Response Team to reestablish a “special operations” deployment capacity. It is also rebuilding its capacity for joint civilian-military deployments to get CSO’s trained conflict operators beyond the embassy walls, where they need to be to influence local populations and convey insights to policymakers. Enhancing Mediation and Negotiation Support. Multilateral mediation and negotiation, especially at the grassroots and involving nonstate groups, is very different from bilateral or mul- tilateral exchanges between sovereign governments. Following the United Nations and other international orga- nizations and partners, CSO is adding staff and training to meet increas- ing demand for technical support for mediation ser- vices and peace process negotiations. Investing in Data and Technology. While IMAP is now avail- able on every State desktop, this is just the start of data-analytic support to diplomacy. CSO regularly runs simulations of negotia- tions and peace processes, “war-gaming” potential scenarios to help policymakers guide their talks. As artificial intelligence’s capabilities grow, AI-enabled gaming and modeling likely will prove even more valuable tools. Policymakers will be able to mix and match offers, trade-offs and partners to see what outcomes are desirable and achievable. CSO is investing in technology and data analytics specialists and funding new or expanded public datasets to ensure the United States can take advantage of the latest tools for diplomacy. Many of the lessons learned by S/CRS and CSO are now enshrined in law and policy. CSO is State’s lead for implement- ing the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018, and the bureau co-leads implementation of the 2019 Global Fragility Act and the 2018 Stabilization Assistance Review with the Office of the Director of Foreign Assistance. These are sig- nificant prevention policy initiatives. The GFA mandates that the executive branch develop 10-year plans for identified countries and calls for negotiating compacts with their governments to condition further assistance. The Elie Wiesel Act requires assess- ments and prevention plans for the 30 highest-risk countries. These efforts require stabilization advisers with highly developed expertise and data-analytic backgrounds, who can lead planning and evaluation of policy and programs in both Washington and challenging field locations. Afghanistan will not be America’s last stability challenge. CSO, and its mandate, do not just reflect the lessons that thousands of U.S. personnel sweated and bled for in Afghani- stan—they memorialize them. Having developed and refined these capabilities through years of trial and error, it is now up to policymakers to use them effectively. n Stabilization Adviser Marty Regan, top left, meets with civil society leaders to discuss a CSO-funded program involving community- level social cohesion programs aimed at vulnerable youth in Bangui, Central African Republic, in April 2016. U.S.DEPARTMENTOFSTATE