The Foreign Service Journal, October 2022

34 OCTOBER 2022 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Michael A. Lally is minister counselor for commercial affairs at the U.S. Mission to the European Union. He was deputy assistant secretary of commerce for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (2014-2017) and has served in Ukraine, Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey. He thanks public and private sector colleagues for their contributions to this article. The views expressed within are solely his own. Comments are welcome to malallyjr@gmail.com . Though the war remains far from over, the scale and complexity of the Ukraine reconstruction effort require stakeholders to plan now, this commercial diplomat explains. BY M I CHAE L A . LAL LY R ussia’s further, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has upended global geopolitics and European security, and has devastated Europe’s second-largest country by terri- tory. While the war rages in Ukraine’s south and east, another campaign has begun, far from the battlefield. It has existential, long-term consequences for the Ukrainian state, Europe, and democratic governance everywhere: the reconstruction of Ukraine. Though the war remains far from over, the scale and complex- ity of the Ukraine reconstruction effort require stakeholders to plan now. While piecemeal efforts continue to provide short-term fixes to critical infrastructure, larger-scale reconstruction should be planned for now but only executed once a lasting peace is assured. Using today’s dollars, the oft-quoted $750 billion price tag to rebuild Ukraine will dwarf the reconstruction budgets of the Marshall Plan, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined . Although analysts will likely draw parallels with previous reconstruction efforts in the Middle East and South Asia, Ukraine presents a completely different scenario. Ukraine’s geographical proximity to Europe and Eurasia, European Union candidate sta- tus, highly skilled work force, and still functioning, export-driven economy all increase the possibility of success, strengthening a key trans-Atlantic ally to counter Russia’s continued aggression in Europe. As President Joe Biden remarked in his March 2022 speech in Warsaw: “Let us resolve to put the strength of democra- cies into action to thwart the designs of autocracy. Let us remem- ber that the test of this moment is the test of all time.” PERSPECTIVES ON UKRAINE FOCUS Reconstruction: Priorities, Institutions, and the Private Sector Ukraine