The Foreign Service Journal, October 2022

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | OCTOBER 2022 35 Kyiv has sensibly divided its reconstruction effort into three phases: emergency aid to address urgent needs; deeper, broader efforts to rebuild affected infrastructure; and long-term sustain- ability to integrate Ukraine into European institutions and one day become a member of the European Union. Many critical elements of Ukraine’s reconstruction scheme will be decided later, including governance, assistance coordination, loans vs. grants, monitoring, asset seizure, and a slew of other issues. While those important and thorny considerations continue to get sorted, the American private sector, working with Ukraine and the international financial institutions, should be deliberating now on approaches to a reconstruction effort that could ultimately top $1 trillion. Priorities for Reconstruction: The Economy The July 2022 Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, Switzerland, laid out the broad contours of the reconstruction challenge. The Ukrainian government estimates that 11 air- ports, more than 300 bridges, and 6,500 kilometers of railways have either been damaged or destroyed. Four major seaports are under occupation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent campaign to repair Ukraine’s dilapidated roads was set back several years by Russia’s bombings, with 25,000 kilometers of road now needing repair or a complete rebuild. Damage to infrastructure alone is estimated by the Ukrainian government at $100 billion, with more destruction every day. Business confidence, while resilient, has also suffered. A recent survey of members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine (AmCham Ukraine) highlighted continued safety and security concerns in the country. All reconstruction efforts hinge on a durable peace that will allow for a return of migrants, a reconstruction mobiliza- tion effort, and workers to fuel the economy. At this writing, both sides are far apart, and any cease-fire or peace agreement seems remote. While the reconstruction task list will be long, five areas should be prioritized both for emergency support and long-term development: Housing for the population is a “now” goal for Ukraine reconstruction. More than 120,000 residential structures have been destroyed or severely damaged during the war, with almost total destruction in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Temporary housing for internally displaced persons (including all aspects of social infrastructure such as clinics, schools, and community centers) must be priority number one. Construc- tion of permanent housing will take one to three years, with the opportunity to “build back better” by incorporating modern, energy-efficient materials and technologies, thereby reducing energy consumption. Ukraine’s archaic infrastructure has been and continues to be badly damaged by the war, including its roads, bridges, airports, railway system, and ports. On Sept. 6, the International Atomic Energy Agency called for the urgent establishment of a demilitarized zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to prevent a nuclear accident. Now occupied by Russian troops, Zaporizhzhia is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Before the war it supplied more than a fifth of total electricity generated in Ukraine. A Kyiv School of Economics survey conducted earlier this year found that the country’s only major oil refinery, seven power generation facilities, eight civilian airports, 145 factories, and more than 600 educational institutions required significant if not com- plete reconstruction. These figures represent a conservative esti- mate and are likely much higher. The knock-on economic effects, including unemployment and energy shortages, are staggering. Importantly, AmChamUkraine cited damaged or destroyed transportation and logistical infrastructure as a top issue for rebuilding Ukraine’s economy. Roads, seaports, river transporta- tion hubs, major airports, and high-speed rail between Kyiv, L’viv, Odesa, and Kharkiv should be part of the long-term reconstruc- tion effort. To jump-start the campaign, industrial parks with addi- tional legal protections and basic support infrastructure should be considered, borrowing from Turkey’s successful experience. In agriculture , Ukraine’s world famous chernozem (black earth) allows the country to feed 10 times its own population through exports. Agriculture accounted for 11 percent of the country’s prewar GDP and 40 percent of total exports. Ukraine produces more than 30 percent of the world’s sunflower oil and is a leading exporter of wheat, barley, potatoes, and corn. Due to the war, 10 million hectares have been knocked out of production, much covered with mines placed by Russian armed forces. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that Ukraine’s wheat pro- duction alone will fall by two-thirds to 22 million metric tons, and this will be compounded further by port blockages and Russia’s continued terror on the Black Sea. To rebuild this essential sector, a decade-long, intense effort will require demining agricultural land, replacing agricultural machinery, silos, warehousing, and trucking, and updating road and river connections to seaports for onward export. Further reforms in land property rights and land registration should also be part of the reconstruction effort. Using its Syrian playbook, the Kremlin has systematically targeted water and wastewater infrastructure to demoralize the