THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | OCTOBER 2024 35 international partners work together to move toward sustainable development and self-reliance. Economic Pressures and Political Uncertainty A major driver of recent economic challenges in this landlocked country has been the conflict that erupted in April 2023 in its northern neighbor Sudan, through which South Sudan exports most of its oil. The war in Sudan has disrupted the flow of oil, and revenues, into the state treasury. Instead, it has brought a wave of refugees and returnees into South Sudan, further straining the country’s already limited resources and conditions of humanitarian crisis. Also significant, the young nation’s first elections are scheduled to take place in December, after having been repeatedly postponed for many years. In a nation that is home to some 64 ethnicities, the elections are expected to replace temporary peace agreements with a more permanent resolution, paving the way for lasting peace and sustainable development. But with December only a few months away, there is widespread uncertainty whether the elections will be held. This is a critical point of concern. A priority for parts of the international community that have pressured Juba to schedule them, the elections are meant to be a milestone in South Sudan’s democratic journey. Yet because basic preparations are still lacking and no census has been conducted, there are fears that elections might either trigger new conflicts or fail to take place altogether. Critics argue that fundamental conditions for a fair election are not in place. From taxi drivers, students, and waiters to international aid workers and academics, opinions are divided on the potential outcome. While some fear that holding elections might trigger new conflicts, others worry that not holding elections could have the same effect. There are concerns that 2024 might see a widespread deterioration in the security situation, similar to what the country experienced between 2013 and 2018, although this scenario has fortunately not materialized yet. At the same time, among young people in Juba, connected to smartphones and social media as they are, the U.S. election, and the potential return of a candidate who rejected the outcome of the last presidential election, is one of the most discussed topics. They are watching closely; and in the view of some, the U.S. as an intervening international body is losing credibility. Whether or not the elections take place, it is possible that 2024 will pass without major escalations in conflict. Though the political elites in Juba are still divided, and still prefer not to share power, they also learned lessons from the past. A return to civil war is not a preferred option for either party. Memories of the brutal civil war years, which buried many hopes for the young nation’s quick development and traumatized many South Sudanese, are still vivid. Most do not wish to return to such a state of conflict. While competition for power and communal and interethnic violence remain threats, they are currently mostly limited to localized incidents, and the situation now in South Sudan is far from the civil war–like situations of the past. Some politicians are working toward peace and stability. Local peace initiatives and ongoing dialogues involving national and state leaders show a commitment to working toward reconciliation and stability in the country. Some of these initiatives might be very localized, yet they have an impact and are dependent on the political buy-in of politicians, which is given in some areas of the country. The Aid Dependence Trap The truth, however, is that South Sudan remains in perpetual crisis. The absence of stability and peace is still the primary challenge for the country, underpinning many other issues such as food insecurity and hunger. The food security situation is dire, with many people relying on food aid, despite the country’s fertility and abundant resources. South Sudan is home to the River Nile and the second-largest animal migration in the world. Yet the hungry population depends on aid, as does the economy as a whole. A worker unloads bags of sorghum for distribution to vulnerable people in Aweil East county in northern South Sudan to stave off anticipated famine, June 2024. JULIUS KAUT
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